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Olympia London - 26-27 February 2020
Loews Santa Monica Beach Hotel - March 11, 2020
etc.venues: Monument at 8 Eastchap - March 26, 2020
travel spending in Germany, the United Kingdom and France barely will change
during 2012 but will recover significantly in 2013, according to a forecast
from the Global Business Travel Association. Prepared by the United
States-based consultancy Rockport Analytics, the report on Western Europe also
predicted a sharp fall in spending this year in Italy and Spain, but mixed
fortunes next year for the southern European pair.
said total business travel spending in Germany will grow 0.6 percent during
2012, followed by a more substantial 5.4 percent increase in 2013. The United
Kingdom's figure is projected to grow 0.7 percent this year and 4 percent next
year while France will be down 0.6 percent in 2012 and up 3.3 percent in 2013.
In all cases, GBTA projected growth will be more pronounced for domestic versus
international outbound travel. The most extreme example is France, where
domestic spending is tipped to rise 5.1 percent next year while international
outbound edges upward by only 0.3 percent.
Analytics based its forecast on a wide range of economic and travel data,
including GDP forecasts, employment and unemployment figures, business and
consumer confidence indices, oil prices and recent air passenger and hotel
guest figures. The forecast assumes the European economy will start to recover
from mid-2012, rather than collapse under the weight of the eurozone crisis.
"We assume that Europe will avoid significant downside risks, which could
ultimately cut European business travel much deeper," the report warned.
expects business travel spending in Germany during the third quarter of 2013 to
exceed its previous high recorded five years earlier. In contrast, the United
Kingdom still is far from its peak recorded in the second quarter of 2007.
Using the second quarter of 2005 as an index base of 100, U.K. spending hit 130
in in the third quarter of 2007. After retreating, it's currently at 111 and
will recover somewhat to 117 in the third quarter of 2013, according to the
forecast. France suffered a less precipitous fall during the 2008-2009
recession. Consequently, its current index is 133, close to the peak of 136
recorded for the third quarter of 2008. GBTA forecasts French business travel
spending to hit 140 by the end of 2013.
with deep debt crises, Spain and Italy this year will see their business travel
spending fall by 4.1 percent and 5 percent, respectively, according to GBTA.
The forecast projects a 2013 recovery of 1.9 percent for Spain but a further
fall of 0.8 percent for Italy.
According to GBTA, Germany
in 2011 had Europe's largest business travel spending total ($50 billion),
followed by the United Kingdom ($40 billion), France ($36 billion), Italy ($35
billion) and Spain ($19 billion). Between them, these five nations accounted
for nearly 70 percent of such spending in Western Europe.
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