CoStar and Tourism Economics have revised upward their joint U.S. hotel forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing "stronger leisure and business travel" than previously expected.
The firms now forecast year-over-year U.S. revenue per available room growth in 2026 of 4.4 percent, up from a 2.8 percent projection in early June. The rise in RevPAR will be driven largely by rate, with ADR projected to increase 3.1 percent year over year, though forecast occupancy was raised 0.3 percentage points since the June forecast to 63.1 percent.
"The hotel industry sold a record number of room nights in the first half of the year, an increase of 11.4 million compared with 2025, while room revenue climbed by more than $5.4 billion," STR president Amanda Hite said in a statement.
Much of what's bolstered 2026 U.S. hotel performance so far has been the FIFA World Cup and the America 250 celebrations. As such, Hite said CoStar anticipates for the balance of 2026 "slightly lower gains than in the first half of the year."
Nevertheless, Tourism Economics director of industry studies Aran Ryan said in a statement that the firm expects travel to continue to grow into 2027.
"Stable labor markets, recent wealth gains, and easing inflation should keep consumer spending resilient, while business investment is broadening beyond AI-related projects and group travel continues to recover," Ryan said. "International visitation should see modest improvement, though prolonged U.S.-Canada trade tensions remain a headwind to watch."
The firms now project RevPAR for 2027 to increase 2.1 percent year over year, up from 1.6 percent in June. Again, the projected growth is tied mainly to ADR, set to rise 1.6 percent year over year, as occupancy bumps up 0.4 percentage points from June to 63.4 percent.