GBTA Outlook Mixed For European Business Travel Spending

Business travel spending in Germany, the United Kingdom and France barely will change during 2012 but will recover significantly in 2013, according to a forecast from the Global Business Travel Association. Prepared by the United States-based consultancy Rockport Analytics, the report on Western Europe also predicted a sharp fall in spending this year in Italy and Spain, but mixed fortunes next year for the southern European pair.

GBTA said total business travel spending in Germany will grow 0.6 percent during 2012, followed by a more substantial 5.4 percent increase in 2013. The United Kingdom's figure is projected to grow 0.7 percent this year and 4 percent next year while France will be down 0.6 percent in 2012 and up 3.3 percent in 2013. In all cases, GBTA projected growth will be more pronounced for domestic versus international outbound travel. The most extreme example is France, where domestic spending is tipped to rise 5.1 percent next year while international outbound edges upward by only 0.3 percent.

Rockport Analytics based its forecast on a wide range of economic and travel data, including GDP forecasts, employment and unemployment figures, business and consumer confidence indices, oil prices and recent air passenger and hotel guest figures. The forecast assumes the European economy will start to recover from mid-2012, rather than collapse under the weight of the eurozone crisis. "We assume that Europe will avoid significant downside risks, which could ultimately cut European business travel much deeper," the report warned.

GBTA expects business travel spending in Germany during the third quarter of 2013 to exceed its previous high recorded five years earlier. In contrast, the United Kingdom still is far from its peak recorded in the second quarter of 2007. Using the second quarter of 2005 as an index base of 100, U.K. spending hit 130 in in the third quarter of 2007. After retreating, it's currently at 111 and will recover somewhat to 117 in the third quarter of 2013, according to the forecast. France suffered a less precipitous fall during the 2008-2009 recession. Consequently, its current index is 133, close to the peak of 136 recorded for the third quarter of 2008. GBTA forecasts French business travel spending to hit 140 by the end of 2013.