Cara Whitehill, Thayer Investment Partners
We’re on the cusp of a major rethink of the entire corporate
travel tech stack, both commercially and technologically. Cracks in the tech foundation
have been creeping along more and more the past few years, and 2025 will see
them dramatically accelerate even further.
We’ve seen similar shifts in the tech stacks underpinning
hospitality, airline distribution and traditional travel agency segments, but
until now the corporate travel sector has remained largely resistant to any
massive refactoring. This was due more to commercial interests than technology
limitations.
On the commercial front, we’re going to see much more deal activity
than we’ve seen in the past few years. I’m writing this from Washington, D.C.
on January 20 (no, I wasn’t invited to the inauguration!), and a distinct vibe
shift is already underway. The new administration taking over is expected to
take a more favorable view of M&A activity; coupled with a resuscitated IPO
market and interest rates finally leveling off after some painful post-ZIRP (zero
interest rate policy) era medicine, we should expect more consolidation among
the TMC ecosystem and more vertical M&A.
This will have several downstream implications:
First, it will unlock a meaningful amount of capital that
can be reinvested in more innovation, funding new startups and development
projects within larger companies. We have no shortage of interesting ideas
across the corporate travel sector, and 2025 will see many of these start to
take flight.
Second, we’ll see many startups get acquired and folded into
larger enterprises. This includes many of the venture-backed startups founded
during the pandemic that got stuck in a frothy valuation climate and haven’t
been able to grow into those valuations. In many cases these are strong
products that solve real problems. Finding a new home will enable these
products to thrive and meet market needs more efficiently as part of a larger
platform.
Finally, we will see reduced competition in some corners of
the market. Fewer TMCs mean corporate buyers and suppliers will have to be more
strategic in managing program and distribution costs in the short term.
Vertical M&A will create more opportunities for cost efficiencies in some
areas via all-in-one solutions but may introduce greater complexity in others, for
those who don’t want to go that all-in-one route.
From a technology perspective, there is no shortage of
amazing developments that are already making their way into the corporate
travel sector. Many of these will drive major changes for how travel is managed
as well. A few developments I think are worth watching:
GenAI eliminates traditional corporate
booking tool and expense report (insert praying hands emoji). With
exponential growth in computing power and advances in voice, speech and natural
language processing, the way travelers search for, book and expense their
business trips is going to render clunky booking tools and expense reports obsolete.
Supplier-direct bookings take over. As
GenAI revolutionizes travel search and loyalty programs get smarter, more
transaction volume will accrue directly to suppliers and away from the TMC. This
has implications for the role of TMCs and travel managers, who will shift focus
to service and support instead of transactions.
Digital identity and universal profiles.
Having all your loyalty program details, travel preferences, passport/license
information, and corporate associations (including travel policy) in a digital wallet
that you own and control will make data inherently interoperable across
platforms. This in turn makes it more useful in real-time contexts for things
like expense approval, risk management and policy compliance—no matter where
travel was booked.
The role of the travel manager. All of
these developments will mean a radical shift in the nature of the travel
manager’s role, from policy and procurement police to a true strategic leader.
At the core of any travel program are the actual travelers—typically the
employees who are on the front lines of revenue generation. These are some of
the most important assets in your company, so it makes sense to treat your
corporate travel program like any other strategic asset in your business.
This serendipitous combination of a market that is primed
and ready to invest, with a technology ecosystem that is already percolating
with innovative ideas will make 2025 a year of massive transformation for the
corporate travel sector. Gen Alpha will regard us fondly as the ones who freed
them from the tyranny of the corporate booking tool and horrors of expense
reporting—not a bad legacy!