Hotel analytics firm STR and travel data company Tourism Economics once again have downgraded their U.S. hotel forecast for 2025 and 2026 due to what they characterized as a static macroeconomic environment, the companies announced Wednesday.
It's the third time this year the companies have downgraded those projections since their initial forecast in 2025 in January.
STR parent company CoStar and Tourism Economics now project 2025 U.S. hotel occupancy to decline year over year to 62.3 percent from 63.1 percent in 2024. In their prior forecast, issued in August, the companies projected 2025 U.S. occupancy of 62.5 percent.
CoStar and Tourism Economics also now project full-year 2025 U.S. revenue per available room to decline 0.4 percent year over year, down from the August forecast of a 0.1 percent decrease. 2025. Their forecast of a 0.8 percent year-over-year increase in 2025 U.S. average daily rate is the same as it was in the August projection.
"We expect little change in the macroeconomic environment as unemployment and prices continue to rise," said STR president Amanda Hite said in a statement. "As a result, our hotel performance outlook for the remainder of this year and next were lowered once again. ADR is growing well below the rate of inflation, which in turn will put more pressure on margins."
STR and Tourism Economics now forecast 2026 occupancy to fall to 62 percent (down from 62.3 percent in their June forecast), ADR to increase 0.9 percent year over year (compared with a previous forecast of 1 percent) and RevPAR to increase 0.5 percent (compared with the previous forecast of 0.8 percent).
Despite the slight paring of the 2026 projections, Tourism Economics director of industry studies Aran Ryan in a statement nevertheless suggested there was some cause for optimisim for hoteliers next year.
"Job market softening, policy uncertainty, and tariff costs remain near-term drags for consumers. However, heading into 2026, we expect the U.S. travel economy to firm up moderately," Ryan said. "Household income growth will continue, accompanied by tax cut benefits, resumed hiring, and less policy instability. Expanding global long-haul travel and World Cup interest will bring improved international visitation."
RELATED: STR's August 2025 forecast