Sustainable aviation fuel production in 2026 is projected to reach 2.4 million metric tons, according to the International Air Transport Association. While that would be an increase from the estimated 1.9 million metric tons produced in 2025, the growth rate would be lower than the near doubling of production from 1 million metric tons of SAF in 2024.
IATA's production estimate for 2025 is a downward revision from its June forecast of 2 million metric tons "due to lack of policy support to take full advantage of the installed SAF capacities," according to IATA.
IATA director general Willie Walsh in a statement charged that "poorly designed mandates stalled momentum in the fledgling SAF industry," limiting production momentum.
The United Kingdom this year implemented a mandate that 2 percent of fuel used in U.K. flights must be SAF. Additionally, the European Union's ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation for 2025 requires similar SAF levels at EU airports.
"If the goal of SAF mandates was to slow progress and increase prices, policymakers knocked it out of the park," according to Walsh. "But if the objective is to increase SAF production to further the decarbonization of aviation, then they need to learn from failure and work with the airline industry to design incentives that will work."
Mandates in the EU and U.K. have failed to accelerate SAF production and adoption, according to IATA. "Regrettably, many airlines that have committed to use 10 percent SAF by 2030 will be forced to reevaluate these commitments," Walsh said. "SAF is not being produced in efficient amounts to enable these airlines to achieve their ambition."
In addition, airlines paid $2.9 million for the SAF produced in 2025. Of this $1.4 billion reflects the standard SAF price premium over conventional fuel, according to IATA.
In Europe, ReFuelEU has "sharply increased costs" amid limited SAF capacity and "oligopolist supply chains," according to IATA, with airlines paying up to five times more than the price of conventional jet fuel and double the market price of SAF.
"The U.K. SAF mandate has triggered price spikes, leaving airlines to absorb the burden," IATA noted, adding that with synthetic SAF, or e-SAF, mandates approaching in the U.K. in 2028 and the EU in 2030, "it's essential not to repeat the policy missteps seen with SAF."
IATA estimated that e-SAF could cost as much as 12 times that of conventional jet fuel, and without production incentives instead of mandates, supply will fall short of targets.