Sustainable aviation fuel in 2025 is projected to reach 2 million metric tonnes (2.5 billion liters), the International Air Transport Association announced Sunday at its annual general meeting in New Delhi.
"While it is encouraging that SAF production is expected to double to 2 million [metric] tonnes in 2025, that is just 0.7 percent of aviation's total fuel needs," IATA general director Willie Walsh said in a statement. "And even that relatively small amount will add $4.4 billion globally to the fuel bill. The pace of progress in ramping up production and gaining efficiencies to reduce costs must accelerate."
Most SAF now is "heading toward Europe," where the EU and U.K. mandates began on Jan. 1, 2025. In addition, the cost of SAF to airlines "has now doubled in Europe because of compliance fees that SAF producers or suppliers are charging," according to IATA, which estimated that compliance fees will add $1.7 billion on top of market prices—"an amount that could have abated an additional 3.5 million tonnes of carbon emissions."
IATA also estimated that the average cost of SAF in 2024 was 3.1 times that of jet fuel. In 2025, the global average cost for SAF is expected to be 4.2 times that of jet fuel.
Walsh added that "this highlights the problem with the implementation of mandates before there are sufficient market conditions and before safeguards are in place against unreasonable market practices that raise the cost of decarbonization."
IATA urged redirecting a portion of the $1 trillion in subsidies that governments globally grant for fossil fuel to "eliminate the disadvantage that renewable energy producers face compared with big oil." The association also advocated for an approach to energy policy that includes SAF.