The
GBTA Foundation now expects total 2014 U.S. business travel spending to grow
6.6 percent year over year to $290 billion, following estimated growth of 3.8
percent during 2013. Business trip volume is projected to rise 1.7 percent this
year, rebounding after a projected 0.3 percent decline last year. Much of the
2014 improvement is based on strengthening international U.S.-outbound business
travel trends.
"Next year will bring about much
more robust growth in trip volume and spending as the U.S. economy continues to
improve," according to a report issued Wednesday by the GBTA Foundation,
the research arm of the Global Business Travel Association.
For 2015, researchers projected total
U.S. business travel spending to grow 6.7 percent and trips to increase 1.8
percent.
The
report noted that international outbound spending, which fell 0.8 percent in
2012 and 1.8 percent 2013, appears to have "bottomed" and now is
"beginning to work its way out of a cyclical trough." Authors
suggested that recovery is tied to economic stabilization in the European
Union. As such, the report forecast for 2014 a 7.1 percent increase in
international outbound volume (compared with forecast U.S. domestic trip volume
growth of 1.6 percent) and a 12.5 percent jump in international outbound
spending (with 5.8 percent growth for domestic U.S. business travel). For 2015,
international outbound projections now stand at growth of 6.8 percent and 10.4
percent for volume and spending, respectively.
However,
authors added that "challenged" U.S. export growth will restrain
international outbound business travel "until economic activity improves in key trading
partners such as Europe, Japan and China."
Meanwhile,
the GBTA Foundation projected growth in U.S. group business travel following
two years of decline. "Group business travel will pick up the pace heading
into 2014 with volumes projected to rise 1.7 percent," according to the
report. "Spend per trip will continue to rise, leading to a 6.5 percent
growth in total group spend, the largest jump since 2011. We expect a similar
year for group business travel in 2015 with volume projected to grow 1.6
percent and spending projected to grow 6.2 percent."
The GBTA Foundation again
commissioned the research to Rockport Analytics, which uses an econometric model
based on data from D.K. Shifflet & Associates.