Holiday demand helped buoy the global air travel recovery in December, despite end-of-year cancellations and the Covid-19 omicron variant, according to the International Air Transportation Association. Air demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers, in December was down 45.1 percent versus December 2019, an improvement compared with the 47 percent decline reported in November 2021.
December capacity, as measured in available seat kilometers, was down 37.6 percent compared with 2019, representing a slight improvement over November's 39.7 percent constriction. Full-year 2021 global passenger demand fell 58.4 percent compared with 2019, while 2021 capacity declined 48.8 percent. Both were improvements over the "catastrophic" declines reported in 2020.
"Overall travel demand strengthened in 2021," said IATA director general Willie Walsh in a press release. "That trend continued into December despite travel restrictions in the face of omicron. That says a lot about the strength of passenger confidence and the desire to travel."
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Still, the emergence of the omicron variant led to a fall in international ticket sales in recent weeks, creating more uncertainty around further improvements in early 2022. "This fall in ticket sales indicates that the traditionally weak months of January and February will likely be somewhat weaker than would have been the case in the absence of the omicron outbreak," according to IATA. Domestic travel also will "soften somewhat in the near-term."
Crossborder demand for December was down 58.4 percent versus December 2019 with capacity off 50.7 percent. Load factor declined 12.8 percentage points to 68.9 percent. Full-year 2021 demand declined 75.5 percent compared with 2019, with capacity down 65.3 percent. Load factor fell 24 percentage points to 58 percent.
North American 2021 crossborder traffic fell 65.6 percent versus 2019, while capacity was off 52 percent and load factor sank 23.8 percentage points to 60.2 percent. European carriers saw traffic decline 67.6 percent in 2021 versus 2019, with capacity down 57.4 percent; load factor declined 20.6 percentage points to 65 percent. Asia-Pacific reported the steepest full-year 2021 demand decline for any region, plunging 93.2 percent compared with 2019. Capacity was down 84.9 percent and load factor fell 44.3 percentage points to 36.5 percent.
For December 2021, all regions except Africa reported relative crossborder traffic improvements over November figures.
"While international travel remains far from normal in many parts of the world, there is momentum in the right direction," Walsh added. "Last week, France and Switzerland announced significant easing of measures. And yesterday the United Kingdom removed all testing requirements for vaccinated travelers. We hope others will follow their important lead, particularly in Asia where several key markets remain in virtual isolation."
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