Domestic U.S. business travel declined 1.6 percent year over year, according to the U.S. Travel Association's Travel Trends Index, primarily due to Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur holidays falling in October instead of September this year.
Holiday calendar shifts affecting domestic business travel growth rates aren't unusual, but October's contraction was stronger than anticipated, which could signal a coming economic slowdown, according to USTA. The contraction's impact on total domestic travel was offset by domestic leisure travel, which grew 4.4 percent year over year. For October, total domestic travel grew 2.6 percent, and travel to and within the United States grew 2.2 percent.
For November 2019 to April 2020, USTA forecasts domestic business travel will grow 1.2 percent year over year. During that same period, total U.S. travel volume is forecast to grow 1.2 percent. Total domestic travel is projected to expand 1.4 percent. Domestic leisure travel will grow 1.6 percent. USTA expects consumer confidence and expectations to remain steady in October, though predicts consumer spending strength to weaken through the start of 2020. USTA noted business activity continues to cool, particularly in manufacturing, restraining expectations for domestic business travel.
International inbound travel did not experience growth in October 2019. From November to April 2020, USTA forecasts such travel to contract by 0.8 percent year over year. Cooling domestic and global economic growth, prolonged and expanding trade tensions and policy uncertainty remain risks to international traveler sentiment, according to USTA.
"The year-over-year growth rate of travel to and within the U.S. was slower during the first 10 months of 2019 than in the same period in 2018," said USTA SVP of research David Huether. "This deceleration has been largely due to international inbound travel, and domestic business travel to a lesser extent."
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