U.S. travel volume grew 3 percent year over year in April, according to the U.S. Travel Association. It is expected grow around 1.8 percent year over year from May through October. Domestic travel increased 2.6 percent year over year in April, thanks entirely to leisure travel growth, which rose 3.2 percent. Business travel saw no growth, likely due to Easter and Passover pushing meetings and conventions to other months. From May through October, domestic business travel will grow 2.6 percent year over year. Leisure travel growth is expected to outpace business travel growth, as vacation intentions remain healthy and forward-looking bookings and searches point to continued growth. Escalation of trade conflicts and the resulting manufacturing uncertainty are contributing to tepid expectations for business investment growth in 2019.
International inbound travel to the U.S. grew 5.6 percent in April, thanks to the Easter calendar shift. Over the next six months, international inbound travel year-over-year growth is expected to moderate at 0.8 percent. Soft economic activity globally, prolonged and growing trade tensions and uncertainty around the Trump administration remain major risks to international inbound travel. USTA said ongoing U.S.-China, U.S.-Mexico-Canada and U.K.-Eurozone trade discussions, if resolved, may ease these downside risks.
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