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International Air Transport Association once again revised its 2010 global
profit forecast upward, this time to $8.9 billion from its previous $2.5
billion expectation shared in June. IATA attributed the outlook improvement to
continued capacity management, improving demand, stabilized operational costs
and ongoing revenue recovery.
positive full-year profit outlook issued Tuesday follows a June revision from a
targeted $2.8 billion in global losses to $2.5 billion in profits.
recovery has been stronger and faster than anyone predicted," IATA
director general and CEO Giovanni Bisignani said.
Africa, where the profit outlook remains unchanged at $100 million, carriers in
every major region in IATA's outlook are the subject of improved earnings
prospects, with Asia/Pacific carriers leading the pack with an expected $5.2
North American carriers to post a $3.5 billion profit, rather than the $1.9
billion profit forecast in June. Latin American carriers are expected to earn
an additional $100 million this year, from the $900 million expected in June,
while Middle Eastern airlines will add $300 million to June's $100 million
profit forecast. Though still in the red, IATA now expects European carriers to
lose $1.3 billion, compared with the previously targeted $2.8 billion loss.
real question in this forecast is how long we see the recovery lasting,"
Bisignani said. "It is clear that there will be a slowdown in the fourth
quarter. We are already seeing that in our traffic. 2010 is as good as it gets.
It will be the peak of this cycle. 2011 will be a much tougher year." IATA
expects 2011 profits to fall from its 2010 outlook to $5.3 billion, the result
of expected slowing in economic growth.