JetBlue on Thursday updated its third-quarter guidance, reducing its capacity growth outlook while increasing its projected revenue and cost growth rates, according to a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing.
Current Q3 capacity guidance is for an increase of 1.5 percent to 3.5 percent year over year compared with prior projections of 3 percent to 6 percent. JetBlue now anticipates growth in revenue per available seat mile of 17 percent to 20 percent versus previous guidance of 12.5 percent to 16.5 percent.
Expenses also are on the rise, with cost per available seat mile excluding fuel now expected to increase 6 percent to 8 percent year over year compared with prior guidance of an increase of 2.5 percent to 4.5 percent. The estimated fuel price per gallon now is $3.96 versus prior projections of $3.49.
In the filing, JetBlue noted that demand for travel has remained strong throughout the quarter, with healthy booking trends for both peak and off-peak travel periods continuing into September. There also were "elevated operational disruptions" in July and August because of weather events and air traffic control constraints, particularly in the carrier's core Northeast geographies.
Still, JetBlue added that "strong underlying demand, a constructive pricing environment and targeted commercial actions have driven a meaningful improvement in the company's third-quarter revenue outlook." Further, early fourth-quarter booking trends "remain encouraging," according to JetBlue.
Could reduced capacity growth, resilient demand and higher costs lead to further increases in ticket prices?
"In a word, yes," Areka SVP of North America Charles Bacharach told BTN in an email. "JetBlue ticket prices will likely increase. ... While JetBlue can't stimulate demand, they can constrain their own supply with the hoped-for result of increasing prices in order to offset the impact of higher fuel costs."
More generally, "corporate demand continues to be resilient, so at this point, I see the airlines not only continuing to raise base airfares, but also increase ancillary fees like baggage, seat selection, inflight food, etc.," Partnership Travel Consulting chief strategy officer Bob Brindley said in an email. "Domestic U.S. airfares have been running about 20 percent higher than 2025 for March through August. We expect that to continue through the end of the year, in line with continued historically high jet fuel prices."