In an updated forecast released Wednesday, BCD Travel's
Advito consulting unit said airfares next year will grow by low-to-mid single-digit
percentages in all regions, while overall worldwide average daily hotel rates would
grow by a similar magnitude with significant regional variance.
The forecast, updated quarterly since its release last year,
reflects what Advito characterized as building corporate travel demand through
the first half of this year and general economic growth through early August.
Noting that economic expansion so far this year has been
stronger than expected, Advito said airfares in major regions have been rising
"sharper and faster" than originally forecast. Though airfares are
expected to continue their climb next year, Advito said the rate of growth
would moderate, with fares in 2011 growing between 2 percent and 7 percent in
North America; 4 percent and 5 percent in Latin America and Asia/Pacific; 2
percent and 7 percent in Europe; 3 percent and 6 percent in the Middle East;
and 2 percent to 5 percent in Africa.
Advito cited the International Monetary Fund's cautious 2011
outlook for modest growth next year in mature economies and more robust growth
in emerging economies. "The global economy confronts renewed financial
turbulence, reflecting a drop in confidence about fiscal
sustainability—especially in the euro area—as well as about policy responses
and future growth prospects," Advito said.
Advito said it largely is maintaining the outlook in its prior
hotel rate forecast, released at the beginning of the second quarter, in most
major markets, except China, Singapore and the United Kingdom, all of which
have been revised upward.
"Buyers should be aware, however, that considerable
variation exists between markets within a region and between cities within a
given market," Advito said.
Across all regions, Advito expects average daily rate
increases between 2.5 percent and 6 percent, with rate growth in major markets
to be by and large higher, with some big markets—from London and Hong Kong to
New York—likely to see low double-digit percentage growth.