The International Air Transport Association estimates sustainable aviation fuel production to reach at least 300 million liters in 2022, about triple the 100 million liters produced in 2021. Some calculations have that figure reaching 450 million liters, according to IATA.
Those figures still are a fraction of the amount needed to help airlines achieve their 2050 net-zero carbon emissions goals. According to current IATA estimates, SAF would account for 65 percent of the required mitigation to reach those goals, which would necessitate a production capacity of 450 billion liters annually in 2050.
"Airlines used every drop, even at very high prices," said IATA director general Willie Walsh in a statement of carriers' 2022 use. "If more was available, it would have been purchased. That makes it clear that it is a supply issue and that market forces alone are insufficient to solve it. Governments, who now share the same 2050 net-zero goal, need to put in place comprehensive production incentives for SAF. It is what they did to successfully transition economies to renewable sources of electricity. And it is what aviation needs to decarbonize."
To date, more than 450,000 commercial flights have operated using SAF, according to IATA, and so far in 2022, about 40 offtake agreements have been announced.