January total air demand, as measured in revenue passenger
kilometers, increased 3.8 percent year over year, which represents slower
growth than the 5.6 percent reported in December, according to the latest
report from the International Air Transport Association.
International demand growth lifted the total rate for the
month. January international demand increased 5.9 percent compared with January
2025, while total domestic demand rose just 0.1 percent for the period.
The same pattern played out with capacity—higher
international capacity offset a decline in domestic capacity. Total January capacity,
as measured in available seat kilometers, increased 3.5 percent year over year,
with international capacity up 5.8 percent and domestic capacity down 0.4
percent compared with January 2025.
IATA noted that total January load factor increased 0.2
percentage points compared with January 2025 to 82 percent, a record high for the
month. International load factor was up 0.1 percentage points to 82.5 percent,
while domestic load factor climbed 0.4 percentage points to 81.2 percent for
the period. "Both international and domestic segments also saw their
highest January PLF on record," according to IATA.
January demand was affected by the shift in the Lunar New
Year from January in 2025 to February in 2026.
"The timing of the Lunar New Year partly explains the
slightly slower 3.8 percent expansion in January, but the fundamentals are in
place for demand to continue strong growth in 2026," IATA director general
Willie Walsh said in a statement. "Events over the weekend have, however,
introduced some uncertainty into the evolution of traffic and fuel costs."
[Report continues below chart.]
IATA January Traffic
January total demand and capacity increased for each region in
the IATA report, with Africa having the highest growth rates for each at 17.9
percent and 16.3 percent year over year, respectively. North America reported
the slowest growth rate for demand (0.8 percent) and capacity (0.1 percent).
Europe reported January total traffic growth of 6 percent compared with January
2025 and a capacity increase of 5.1 percent.
International demand and capacity for January also grew for
each region year over year, with Africa again leading the way with a demand increase
of 11.7 percent versus January 2025 and a capacity increase of 10.1 percent. North
America had the slowest international traffic growth rate at 3.4 percent and
slowest capacity growth at 2.6 percent. Europe's international demand rate for
January was 6.3 percent year over year, while capacity increased 5.7 percent.
On the January domestic front, it was a mixed bag. Three of
the countries in the report saw year-over-year traffic increases, with the
remaining three reporting declines. Africa reported the largest demand increase
at 10.9 percent year over year. China had the largest demand decline at 3.8
percent for the period, but the shift in the Lunar New Year affected that
figure. China and North America were the only two countries with both negative
demand and capacity compared with January 2025.
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