TBR Index: Strong Industry Finish For '98

<B> TBR Index: Strong Industry Finish For '98</B>

The December 1998 Travel Business Roundtable Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.3 percent, rebounding from a 0.5 percent decline in November and outpacing September and October increases. The Conference Board's U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators also grew 0.3 percent.

Full year figures for 1998 show significantly more growth in the travel industry than in the general economy, with the TBR Index climbing 4.7 percent while the U.S. Index grew by 1.5 percent. But the Index lagged behind the 1997 number of 6.2 percent, as a result of an August drop in consumer confidence and hotel/motel revenue as the stock market dove.

Three of the nine components of the Index were particularly strong in 1998: the hotel/motel occupancy rate reported by Smith Travel Research, personal expenditures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and sales at eating and drinking establishments from the Department of Commerce and Bureau of Census. December also was buoyed by the daily rental car price index provided by a top industry provider, but showed declines in total ARC sales and the Smith Travel's hotel/motel revenue index. Data from the Air Transport Association, the Conference Board and the Bureau of Labor Statistics were unchanged.

The Howell Group, which pulls together and analyzes the TBR Index, projects 2.5 to 3 percent growth in 1999, with a relatively strong first half.