<H1>TBR Builds Travel Index </H1>By David Meyer
The Travel Business Roundtable expects next month to finish putting together a monthly economic indicator that shows the impact of the travel industry on the U.S. economy.
TBR has rounded up sources that can provide data for every segment of the travel business on a monthly basis. Before the travel business index is ready for publication the group will examine data for the past 20 years and pinpoint time series that serve as leading indicators of economic change.
TBR-the ad hoc group of more than 60 CEOs and other senior executives of travel supplier companies-commissioned Jim Howell of The Howell Group, former chief economist for the Bank of Boston, to create the instrument. "We will have to build it backwards before we can build forward," he said, "but we now have 85 percent of the data needed to build the index."
The only data that is not yet in hand is the rental car data that Avis has promised and the credit card purchase data that American Express has said it will provide. The Air Transport Association, Smith Travel Research, the Conference Board and the Airlines Reporting Commission have already shared their data.
Howell intends to spend the next month looking at 40 to 50 different time series measurements from these sources to pick the 10 or 12 that make the most sense for the industry.
Cruise and gaming industry sources have chosen not to participate at this time, but Howell hopes that will change once the index proves to be a success.
"The critical piece here," said Nick Athanasiou, Arthur D. Little vice president, "is looking backwards prior to and after boom or down cycles. The travel industry probably precedes downturns and upturns. It should be a good indicator because of the discretionary spending aspect of what is going on in the general economy, and that measure will show how big and important the travel industry is."
Athanasiou has played an active role on the TBR task force, along with Marianne Toldalagi of American Express and Roger Ballou of Alamo, to work with Howell to put the right data together.
The index will formally be unveiled at The Masters Program, TBR's annual education event, which will be held at the Loews L'Enfant Plaza Hotel in Washington, Nov. 19-21. The agenda includes a panel of top technology players and results from a Harvard MBA study of tourism.
Creation of the economic indicator and the Masters Program were just two of the topics the 18-month-old TBR discussed in Washington in July. To provide continuity to the group's efforts and voice the travel industry's common priorities, the group endorsed the recommendation by its policy committee that 1996 TBR chairman Jonathan Tisch, president and CEO of Loews Hotels, and TBR policy committee chairman William Diffenderffer, president of System One, retain their positions through 1997.
Participants also focused on how industry CEOs can get involved most effectively in influencing public policy, particularly in interacting with congressmen and state and local officials.
Chairman Tisch talked about more than 20 meetings he has had with legislators in the past few months to discuss TBR's goals of creating a public-private entity that will promote travel to the United States and the restoration of full tax deductibility for business meals.
For more information on the Travel Business Roundtable or The Masters Program, please call (202) 872-8603.