FAA: Air Travel 10 Years Out

<B> FAA: Air Travel 10 Years Out</B>

By Barbara Cook

<I>Washington</I> - The healthy expansion of the U.S. economy, coupled with improvements in most world economies, will support sustained growth in all sectors of the U.S. airline industry, the Federal Aviation Administration concluded in its commercial aviation forecast for fiscal years 1999-2010.

The number of domestic and international air travelers on American carriers will reach nearly one billion in 2010, up from 643.3 million today, agency officials predicted at the recent forecast conference held here.

During 1999, the number of domestic airline passengers will reach the 567.9 million mark, a 2.4 percent gain over 1998, FAA said. For the period 1998 through 2010, domestic passengers are forecast to increase by 3.4 percent annually, reaching 828 million in 2010. Paralleling that expansion, U.S. airline international enplanements are predicted to increase to 56 million in 1999 and grow by 5.7 percent a year, reaching 103.1 million in 2010.

The number of passengers on U.S. and foreign flag carriers traveling to or from the United States is expected to climb to 132.2 million this year, a 4.8 percent increase over 1998, FAA said. This growth is expected to continue at a 5.1 percent rate each year and reach 230.2 million in 2010.

An even stronger growth segment of the U.S. airline industry will be regional/commuter carriers, FAA said, with enplanements in this sector expected to increase to 71 million this year, a 7.4 percent jump over 1998. Enplanements are expected to rise by 5.4 percent annually after that, reaching 123.8 million in 2010. The rising popularity of regional jets will result in an increase from 206 aircraft in 1998 to 1,195 aircraft in 2010, an annual gain of 15.8 percent, FAA said.

The general aviation community also will share in this prosperity, FAA said, pointing to an expected 1 percent yearly increase in the size of the GA fleet through 2010. The turboprop/turbojet fleet, the fastest growing segment, is forecast to increase 2.7 percent each year, the agency said.

Inflation and fuel prices are projected to remain in the "moderate" range over the life of the forecast, FAA said, increasing at average annual rates of 2.3 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. Most of the increases in oil prices will occur in 2000-2001 due, in part, to the expected recovery of the Asian economies and greater demand from that part of the world.

FAA administrator Jane Garvey said the agency's new Host computers--the heart of the agency's air traffic control modernization program--will be up and running by October, an improvement over earlier predictions. All 20 of the new Hosts will be Y2K compliant, she added.

Garvey said FAA is relying on "evolution not revolution" to upgrade the ATC system, reasoning that this approach will avoid cost overruns and delays "at the same time we deliberately build upon the successes and lessons learned at every stage."

Garvey described the three elements she said constitute the agency's approach to ATC modernization. First is the upgrading of systems, such as replacement of the Host computers, and the plan to introduce 20 new Display System Replacements by May 2000. While FAA has experienced problems with the Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System, Garvey acknowledged, she said the agency now is taking an "improved approach" to this challenge. "We have controllers, technicians and management working side by side to resolve open issues and to develop a product that works," she told conference delegates.

The second element of the modernization program is the addition of safety features, which largely address weather information, the administrator said. "There are many weather initiatives in our blueprint, such as Integrated Terminal Weather System and Weather and Radar Processor, which provide terminal area and en route weather information," Garvey said, adding that systems such as terminal Doppler radar are being provided for major airports where windshear and microbursts are a problem.

The third element of the modernization plan is to increase the capacity and efficiency of the system, Garvey said. For the near term, this means the implementation of Phase l of Free Flight, which will be effective by the end of 2002. She described an imaginary flight to illustrate how Free Flight will actually work and noted that new systems, called Traffic Management Advisor and passive Final Approach Spacing Tool will boost airport capacity by flowing aircraft to airports at their maximum capacity. This will allow up to five or six more arrivals per hour, she said, meaning up to 1,000 passengers are assured on-time arrival, or are better able to make their connecting flights.

At airports, Garvey said, the Surface Management Advisor will assist airlines in managing their ground operations to ensure that the gate is ready when the flight lands, and assist with putting luggage in passengers' hands as quickly as possible.