Update Tues. Oct. 3 - The U.S. House of Representatives in an emergency vote on Saturday passed a 45-day stopgap funding bill to avert a government shutdown. The Senate approved the bill and President Joe Biden signed it Saturday night. The temporary funding kicks the can into mid-November on what could end in another congressional showdown on how to move forward. The issue now is complicated by the ouster of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy as there is no clear successor to the position. North Carolina representative Patrick McHenry temporarily serves in the gap as acting speaker. The House of Representatives is now in recess until Oct. 10.
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The threat of a government shutdown beginning Oct. 1 looms
large as Congress had yet to pass a new funding deal as of Thursday afternoon.
The U.S. Travel Association has projected a shutdown could
cost the travel economy $140 million per day. In addition, six in 10 Americans
would cancel or avoid trips by air should a shutdown occur, according to a
recent survey by U.S. Travel and Ipsos.
It also means more than 13,000 air traffic controllers and about
50,000 U.S. Transportation Security Administration officers would have to work
without getting paid because they are considered essential workers, according
to the Biden administration. The longer the shutdown lasts, the more likely
these workers will begin to call in sick or look for work elsewhere, as has
happened during previous shutdowns.
"As [a shutdown] lingers on, it will get more and more
difficult [to fly]," McIndoe Risk Advisory founder Bruce McIndoe told BTN.
"There will be tremendous lines, flight cancellations and delays, and not
enough ATCs. That is what happened before and will happen in spades
again."
Aviation industry advocate Airlines for America said in a
statement that "a government shutdown would further constrain an already
stressed national aviation system, which could lead to flight delays for
travelers and cargo shipments, longer screening lines and further setbacks in
ATC hiring, aircraft certification and NextGen modernization initiatives.
Commercial aviation plays a vital role in the American economy, supporting 5
percent of the U.S. gross domestic product and more than 10 million jobs. Failure
to adequately fund the [Federal Aviation Administration] and TSA risks our
ability to function efficiently and is not conducive to the growth and vitality
of our airspace."
The five-year funding period for the FAA also ends Sept. 30.
A bill that includes the agency's reauthorization passed the House of
Representatives in July, but it has yet to pass the Senate. U.S. Travel has
called on Congress to pass a short-term extension by Sept. 30.
"This completely avoidable situation threatens
livelihoods and jobs across the U.S. economy," U.S. Travel president and CEO
Geoff Freeman said in a statement. "Ultimately, travelers, businesses and
workers will pay the price if lawmakers fail to enact a stop-gap funding
bill."
If the government shuts down for weeks—as it did the last
time there was a lack of funding, from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019,
the longest shutdown in U.S. history—the effects could "ripple all through
the pipeline of new pilots and new [air traffic] controller training that will
prolong the pain we are already getting because they are all
understaffed," McIndoe said.
The safety of operations also could be affected. "We'll
have less controllers, and the risk of a ground accident will increase during
these stressful times unless they substantially reduce the traffic, which makes
everything else more difficult," he said.
McIndoe's advice to travel managers: Tell travelers to get
home, or to get out and back, within a week after a shutdown begins.
"After that, you really should [allow only] essential travel, because it
becomes more and more difficult day after day getting through the travel
process," he added.
Having travelers switch to driving to destinations instead
of flying also carries with it added risks, McIndoe said. "What happened
last time is people jumped in automobiles and drove three to five hours rather
than dealing with airports, and we're seeing a little of that already before
the shutdown," he said.
"You need to know from a risk perspective, the chance
of dying on a commercial airplane in the U.S. is one in 10 million,"
McIndoe added. "On the road it's one in 30,000. So pushing employees to
get into vehicles and driving is significantly more risky than dealing in an
airport line for two hours."