Business travel industry optimism has taken a hit in the wake of recent U.S. government actions concerning the economy and immigration, and some buyers say they are cutting down inbound travel to the U.S., according to a Global Business Travel Association poll of 905 industry professionals.
The poll, fielded from March 31 through April 8, showed 31 percent of surveyed industry professionals—a respondent base of which buyers comprised about half—said they were optimistic about the overall industry outlook. That marked a drop of 36 percentage points from a GBTA poll in November that showed a positive outlook from 67 percent of respondents. Forty percent of respondents in the current poll said their outlook was neutral, and 26 percent had a pessimistic outlook, according to GBTA.
"While the outlook for global business travel was incredibly strong coming into 2025, our research now shows increasing concerns and uncertainty within our industry, considering recent actions taken by the U.S. government," GBTA CEO Suzanne Neufang said in a statement. "Productive and essential business travel is threatened in times of economic uncertainty or in an environment of additional barriers and restrictions. This undermines economic prosperity and damages the many sectors that rely on global business travel to survive and thrive."
In light of the U.S. government's actions including the implementation of tariffs and its cross-border policies, 27 percent of buyers said they expect their business travel spending will decline this year, with an average expected decline of 20 percent compared with 2024, and 29 percent of buyers said their average trip volume would decline by an average of 21 percent year over year.
A plurality of respondents, 44 percent for each question, said their spending and volume would not be affected by U.S. policies. Nine percent of buyers said the policies would boost their trip volume by an average of 11 percent, and 11 percent of buyers said U.S. policies would boost spending by an average of 11 percent.
By comparison, a GBTA poll in January showed about two-thirds of buyers were expecting a spending increase this year, and only 12 percent expected a spending decrease.
Travel management company respondents, 12 percent of the total survey sample, were more pessimistic, with 37 percent of respondents expecting a decline in revenue as a result of U.S. policies, with an average decline of 18 percent. Only a quarter of TMC respondents said revenue would not be affected, and 7 percent said it would increase; nearly a third of TMC respondents said they weren't sure or that the question was not applicable.
The biggest concern among respondents of the impact of U.S. government actions was higher costs for business travel, cited by 54 percent of respondents. That was followed by additional processing or administration needs for visas and other travel documentation, at 46 percent. Thirty-seven percent said they were worried about increased safety needs for travelers to the U.S. and a lower willingness from non-U.S. employees to visit the country, and more than a fifth of respondents said border detentions were a concern.
The policy changes have resulted in concrete changes for a small percentage of buyers, according to the survey. Thirteen percent said they have canceled U.S.-based meetings. Ten percent said they have canceled sending employees to events in the U.S., and an additional 10 percent they plan to or are considering it. Nearly 20 percent said they had shifted a meeting or event to a virtual format because of the policies, and 14 percent said that have or are considering relocating meetings to a location outside of the United States.
In general, however, more than 75 percent of respondents said they have no plans to cancel or relocate U.S. meetings and events due to government policy announcements.