Despite a softening of expectations from Marriott International following the announcement of its first-quarter results, hoteliers and analysts expect strong demand to continue to drive the hotel industry through the rest of the year. Supply growth, meanwhile, will accelerate, but not at a fast enough rate to offer much relief to corporate travel buyers.
Marriott slightly lowered its 2007 revenue projections in mid-April from the 7 percent to 9 percent range to the 6 percent to 8 percent range. That came after first-quarter revenue per available room in North American rose by 5.2 percent compared with the same period in 2006, slightly below earlier growth predictions.
"The U.S. lodging industry's RevPAR growth is likely to moderate from the double-digit increases we have seen over the last few years," Marriott CFO Arne Sorenson said in an April conference call. "As a result, we are taking a bit more conservative outlook for 2007."
Sorenson also emphasized that the change in projections did not indicate any larger shift within the hotel industry, however. Subsequent quarterly earnings reports from other hotel companies—including Hilton Hotels Corp., Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Wyndham Worldwide and Choice Hotels International—also showed little signs of weakness within the industry.
"Demand is still there, so I don't think there are any dramatic changes with the prediction," said Maria Chevalier, vice president of global business intelligence for BCD Travel's Advito consulting division. "The same song of 'great through '08' still holds."
Marriott's lower-than-expected revenues also were not a result of any slowdown from the corporate travel sector, which Sorenson said remained robust. "RevPAR was strongest in business-oriented hotels and at higher price points," he said. "We saw the greatest North American revenue strength in corporate and above, our bread-and-butter business, with continued, albeit modest, growth in leisure revenue."
Marriott's revenue growth was on par with the 5.2 percent rate for the U.S. lodging industry as estimated by Smith Travel Research for the quarter. Occupancy decreased to 59.5 percent, down 0.9 percent compared with 2006. The average room rate was up 6.1 percent for the quarter.
Occupancy and revenue comparisons to last year can be a bit misleading as well. Sorenson said weather both this year and last year played a role.
"We suspect that some of what we saw in the first quarter was the lingering comparison of Hurricane Katrina, which increased business at our limited-service brands last year," Sorenson said. "In addition, unusually mild winter weather, especially early in the quarter, reduced leisure travel to some resort areas."
While Hilton also lowered its revenue expectations for the year following its first-quarter results, that stemmed largely from the loss of 132 hotels as a result of the sale of Hilton's Scandic hotel chain
(see story) along with renovation costs at the Hilton New York. Hilton's North American RevPAR was up 6 percent for the quarter, and RevPAR was up 8.9 percent worldwide, and was even stronger in Hilton's upscale brands.
Starwood, which operates the Sheraton, W, Westin and St. Regis brands, also reported North American RevPAR growth above the industry average, at 6.1 percent. Worldwide, Starwood's RevPAR increased by 10.2 percent compared with first-quarter 2006 performance.
"We remain confident that the underlying fundamentals in this business will remain strong, and we expect full-year results to be in line with prior expectations," Bruce Duncan, Starwood's board chairman and interim CEO, said in a conference call to investors.
Wyndham, which operates the upscale Wyndham brand, the midprice Ramada and Wingate Inn brands and several economy brands, reported a softer increase in revenue, with RevPAR up 3 percent for the first quarter. Excluding the Wyndham brand, from which the chain lost several properties, RevPAR was up 6.8 percent for the quarter.
Choice Hotels reported its RevPAR was up 1.4 percent for the quarter. It had a particularly difficult comparison from the post-Katrina boom last year, as RevPAR for the first quarter of 2006 had been up 9.4 percent compared with the same period in 2005.
Performance metrics for the hotel industry should remain strong for the rest of the year, according to Smith Travel Research. As a result, for now it looks like negotiations will remain difficult for corporate travel buyers this year, although not as difficult as the past few years, Advito's Chevalier said.
"We anticipate better demand growth in the second half of 2007, along with increased room supply growth," according to Mark Lomanno, president of Smith Travel Research. "Based on current trends, we believe full year 2007 RevPAR will increase around 6 percent, driven totally by average rate growth."
That supply growth will be particularly strong in the midprice without food and beverage and upscale tiers, which will grow this year at more than twice the rate of the overall hotel industry, according to data released by PricewaterhouseCoopers late last month. With overall hotel supply growth estimated at 1.6 percent in 2007 from 2006 levels, the midprice without food and beverage tier will grow the most of any tier at a rate of 3.6 percent, the data indicated. PwC expects a nearly identical growth rate for upscale supply growth at 3.5 percent in 2007, more than double its 2006 growth rate of 1.7 percent.
The luxury tier, which had the highest growth rate in 2006, still will see an above-average increase in supply of 2.8 percent, as will the upper upscale tier, growing by 2.2 percent, PwC said. The economy tier will see nominal growth—0.2 percent—and the midprice with food and beverage supply is the only tier with a projected supply decrease, at a rate of 2 percent.
Many hotel companies also included ambitious growth plans in their earnings reports. Marriott recently announced a "100 hotels in 100 days" goal across company brands and plans to have its 3,000th hotel open by the end of the year. Starwood expects to open 80 properties this year. Even though the industrywide project growth rate is nearly three times the 2006 rate of 0.6 percent, however, it remains slower than in years past.
"Although the total increase in supply is dramatic, an increase of 1.6 percent is still below the long-term average of 2.2 percent," said Bjorn Hanson, principal with PwC's hospitality and leisure group.