If the U.K. does not ratify a withdrawal agreement from the
European Union by March 29, the date for which Brexit is scheduled, air travel
is among the things that will get hairy. The possibility became much more
likely on Tuesday, when the U.K. parliament overwhelmingly voted against the withdrawal
agreement U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May had negotiated with the EU.
According to the International Air Transport, the EU
Commission on Dec. 19 had put forth a proposal
that would ensure "basic connectivity" in the case of a "no-deal"
Brexit. U.K. carriers would be able to fly over and make technical stops, such
as for refueling, in EU member states and would be able to serve direct routes
to EU states. Under the proposal, the number of flights operated by U.K.
carriers to and from each EU state cannot exceed the number of flights touching
that country during "respectively the IATA winter and summer seasons of
the year of 2018."
The proposal does not distinguish between passenger and
cargo flights and does not define how the cap would be implemented. "There
is legal and commercial uncertainty over how the commission's plan to cap
flight numbers will work," said IATA director general and CEO Alexandre de
Juniac. However, IATA said the cap may stunt important economic opportunities
and may lead to higher prices for consumers. IATA estimates that, to meet
consumer demand, 5 million extra seats are scheduled between the U.K and EU for
2019 compared with 2018. Many of these seats will be in the peak summer season,
putting them at risk of being disrupted if a no-deal Brexit occurs. "That
current flight levels will be protected even with a hard Brexit is an important
assurance, but with two months left until Britain leaves the EU, airlines still
do not know exactly what kind of Brexit they should be planning for," said
de Juniac.
The EU Commission's proposal, meanwhile, is contingent on reciprocity
for EU carriers flying to and from the U.K. When the EU Commission released its
proposal in December, the U.K. Department for Transport welcomed it, said it would
study the plan in detail and reiterated a previous notice that it would permit
EU airlines to fly to the U.K. The Department for Transport has not commented
since.
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