Global car rental prices for the next 12 months generally should increase at a similar rate to recent years, but there could be spikes in particular geographical locations, according to the latest American Express Global Business Travel Ground Monitor report, released Wednesday.
The travel management company in projecting car rental rates for the second half of 2025 and the first half of 2026 also took into consideration the ongoing tariff negotiations between the United States and several countries and their effects on supply chains and the global economy, making it "more complex than usual to make predictions." Instead of offering a single global forecast value, Amex GBT this year provided a forecast range for each country featured.
In addition, Amex GBT used Meta's Prophet time series modeling tool to generate the car rental price forecasts for the Ground Monitor 2025-2026 report, with data from Amex GBT's data lake. The projections cover the next 12 months.
North America
Amex GBT projected average car rental prices in the United States in the next 12 months to increase 1.5 percent to 1.9 percent year over year. For Canada, that range is 2.5 percent to 3 percent.
Increases will be tempered by "strong supply" in the region, according to the report. Though Canada's projected increase range exceeds that of the U.S., its car rental prices "will rise more slowly than in 2024-2025."
Europe
Projected car rental price increases for European countries vary the most in the report. Prices in the Netherlands and Nordics each are projected to remain flat or increase up to 2 percent year over year. Increases for each Germany and France are projected to reach 3 percent to 5 percent. For Belgium, that range is 4 percent to 6 percent, while for the U.K., increases top out at 5 percent to 7 percent.
U.K. regulations requiring car manufacturers sell a certain percentage of electric vehicle came into force last year, and Amex GBT suggested this mandate could help drive up rates there. Another factor is "corporates' preference for using [rental car] delivery and collection services," which also are popular in Germany, according to Amex GBT.
Asia-Pacific
The Ground Monitor report details only Australia within the Asia-Pacific region. China is not included because driving there "is not straightforward" and requires a Chinese driving license. In India, the U.S. Department of State advises using a local driver.
Australian car rental prices in 2025-2026 are projected to rise 3 percent to 7 percent year over year. The actual rise "will depend on the fleet mix of your rental provider and your most popular locations," according to the report. Corporations operating in more remote mining locations could see higher increases, per the report.
Latin America
Potential currency volatility affected the projected ranges for this region, according to Amex GBT. Brazil car rental price changes range from a 3 percent decrease to a 3 percent increase year over year. In Chile, they are projected to remain flat or to increase up to 5 percent. Argentina price projection increases range from 5 percent to 7 percent.
Though Argentina has the highest projected price increase, those increases have declined from last year, when they were in the double-digit percentages. The decline is in line with a "steep fall" in Argentina's inflation rate.