Sustainable aviation fuel production in 2024 is "on track" to triple compared with 2023, but the 1.9 billion liters produced would account for just 0.53 percent of the global fuel the aviation industry needs for the year, the International Air Transport Association announced this week at its Annual General Meeting and the World Air Transport Summit in Dubai.
Still, SAF remains the most important lever in reaching the industry's net-zero sustainability goals and is projected to account for 65 percent of CO2 emissions reductions by 2050, IATA senior VP of sustainability and chief economist Marie Owens Thomsen said. The other levers are offsets and carbon capture (19 percent), new technologies (13 percent) and infrastructure and operations enhancements (3 percent).
By 2050, Thomsen said SAF production must increase by a factor of 1,000. "That sounds staggeringly challenging," she said. "This would take production from 500,000 [metric] tons to 500 million [metric] tons, if we manage to do this. That sounds almost not possible. But the world has achieved these types of challenges many times in the past."
Thomsen gave the example of wind and solar energy, noting that not long ago there wasn't any of it around, and now it is the cheapest form of energy, "cheaper than any fossil fuel," she said. "And the money engaged in that process is similar to the money we think will need to be engaged in our process. … Clearly what we need is strong and urgent public policies for it and as quickly as possible, and then we are convinced that [the production needed] is entirely possible."
"Incentives to build more renewable energy facilities, strengthen the feedstock supply chain, and to allocate a greater portion of renewable fuel output to aviation would help decarbonizing aviation," IATA director general Willie Walsh said. "Governments can also facilitate technical solutions with accelerated approvals for diverse feedstocks and production methodologies as well as co-processing renewable feedstocks in crude oil plants. No one policy or strategy will get us to the needed levels. But by using a combination of all potential policy measures, producing sufficient quantities of SAF is absolutely possible."
IATA has identified nearly 140 announced renewable fuel projects with the capability to produce SAF by 2030. Europe had 58 projects announced. The Americas were next with 39 projects, followed by Asia-Pacific with 25, North Asia with 14 projects, and Africa and the Middle East with three projects.
But not all projects announced necessarily will reach final investment decisions, according to IATA. Through the International Civil Aviation Organization, governments set a target of 5 percent CO2 emission reductions for international aviation from SAF by 2030. To achieve that, about 27 percent of all expected renewable fuel production capacity available in 2030 would need to be dedicated to SAF. Currently, SAF accounts for just 3 percent of all renewable fuel production, per IATA.
"The interest in SAF is growing, and there is plenty of potential. But the concrete plans that we have seen so far are far from sufficient," Walsh said. "[Governments] now need to implement policies to ensure that airlines can actually purchase SAF in the required quantities.
IATA SAF Registry
IATA also announced at its conference that it will establish a registry "to accelerate the uptake of SAF by authoritatively accounting and reporting emissions reductions from SAF." The SAF Registry is expected to launch in the first quarter of 2025 and currently has 17 airlines, one airline group, six national authorities, three original equipment manufacturers and one fuel producer in support of the project.
"Governments need a trusted system to track the quality and quantities of SAF used," Walsh said. "SAF producers need to accurately account for what has been delivered and effectively decarbonized. Corporate customers must be able to transparently account for their Scope 3 emissions. And airlines must have certainty that they can claim the environmental benefits of the SAF they purchased. The registry will meet all these needs."
The registry will have a wide geographic scope and allow airlines to purchase SAF regardless of where it is produced, according to IATA. It will be neutral with respect to regulations, types of SAF and other specificities. The association is working with certification organizations and fuel producers to standardize data for efficient processing.
It also will "help airlines meet regulations," ensuring compliance with SAF mandates and "providing transparency to authorities regarding emissions reductions," and it will provide safeguards against double counting and double claiming, according to IATA.
Independent governance will "ensure the system's impartiality and robustness," and participation in the registry will be on a cost-recovery basis, according to IATA.