Michael Whitesage
An inaugural member of The BTN Group's Business Travel Hall
of Fame, Prism Group founder Michael Whitesage long has been at the forefront of
travel information and data management. The nine-time member of BTN's annual list of the most
influential executives in the business travel industry recently spoke with BTN's David Meyer as part of BTN's Vision: 2020 project about the
future of data, airlines and contracts.
How do you see the travel industry changing by 2020?
We are in the midst of a profound information revolution that is still playing out. It is the most profound change since Gutenburg. We're going to be a different society in 50 years because of it. A lot of what we are seeing right now are forerunners of that. The information platforms are still evolving.
I've identified three major trends that we'll see. The first is big data. Advances in storage and processing power haven't slowed down at all. Moore's law is still intact and it looks like it will remain so for another 10 or 15 years. So by 2020, storage capacity will be very cheap, virtually free compared to what it is today. The processing power is going to be enormous and it's going to change the way we perceive data in ways we don't know yet.
The first phase is just to get reliable data that can be normalized so it can be used. Now we are in the phase when we have metadata, which is data on the data we have. We're looking to use metadata today, and that has sparked the big data discussions. Big data provides stores and libraries of data that it knits together to create new ways to analyze things. What we're seeing is the evolution to the third step, which really are learning systems, systems that learn how to learn. When we see that in the travel industry, we'll see bots that continue to optimize. Contracting will get sharper and smarter. We'll see that happening over the next seven to 10 years.
Will it be as empowering for the buyer as it is for the supplier?
No. I don't see the same access to new robust systems on the buyer side as on the supplier side. Suppliers could get the edge. I don't see the agencies doing it.
When will we get to the point that big data ties this metadata together?
I think we'll start seeing it in pricing and contracting in about three years. The competitive environment may help buyers.
The technology can be used to help the buyers and it can also help them make things more efficient on the other side.
Are personalization and customization where the impact is?
No. You can personalize or depersonalize data when you have large data sets. Yield management is an area where you can optimize the new data capabilities.
The second thing is the browser, and again that is profound. What we have now are search engines and home pages, but what we don't have are robust applications on the browser. The applications we use when we go to work are still locked down in C++ applications. Revolutionizing the browser will change the way we do work. It also will support applications like Excel and Word in a shared environment. That will enable us to adapt rapidly, so I can change a component of a program and it ripples across all users immediately without having to issue a software upgrade. We're now truly multilingual, so I can operate in one language, provide a report in a different language or on a different type of device and create environments that are highly globalized and flexible.
On the airline side, it is all about networks. The carriers will continue to do business through formal and informal networks. The formal networks are the alliances and joint ventures that are bound by agreements and service standards. More interesting are the informal networks that are evolving, like Etihad, Virgin Australia and Airberlin. They can create these dynamic groups with different types of networks that can knit Europe to Asia. There will be more of those as the carriers find it more difficult to acquire and merge together these networks. They are going to be able to see things that they can't see now. They are going to have more access to data and to offer more compelling contracts. It really is remarkable what we are moving into.
This is creating virtual airlines that can overcome regulatory hurdles and create networks that really are responsive.
It's like the new alliance that Qantas has with Emirates. It is changing the world. Qantas was partnered with British Airways for years. We are going to see these dynamic alliances come up much more quickly. The impact is that we have these virtual airlines and contracts are not exclusively about pricing, they're about the network itself. The contracts on the buyer side are what creates that virtual airline.
Will buyers be able to track all ancillary fees in the next seven years?
Yes, once the airlines figure it out. The need and the opportunity are always there before the capability. I think all of that will be more explicit with greater data capability. It's just going to take time to get those data truly available in some format.