The business travel industry can change a lot in seven
years.
To wit: In 2006, the industry was flying high from strong
demand, unaware of the global economic meltdown looming two years over the
horizon. Concur was just an expense reporting company, at least until it
acquired the Outtask booking tool that year. Continental Airlines existed. So
did Northwest.
And not a single business traveler carried an iPhone or an
Android smartphone, much less a tablet.
While there doubtlessly were prescient individuals who
correctly predicted the enormous effect those smartphones would have on
business travel management starting the following year when iPhones were first
introduced, most observers in 2006 would be shocked to peek seven years into
the future. Few would have expected the ubiquity of smartphones among business
travelers and the countless travel-related apps they spawned.
They'd probably be less surprised at some other
developments. Airline consolidation in 2006 certainly seemed possible, even
likely. The rosters of mega travel management companies and the large multibrand
hotel companies of that year largely are the same as today. And few would be
caught off-guard by debates that continue today between airlines, global
distribution companies and TMCs—some of which wound up in court.
Business Travel News
in this special issue tries to quantify the industry's projections of its own
future, supplemented with interviews of thought leaders from all corners of
business travel management. Surely, predicting the future is a fool's errand;
unforeseen developments will trigger significant change.
But collecting, analyzing and quantifying opinions and
projections serves a purpose beyond an interesting thought exercise for BTN's editors. Those surveyed and
interviewed for this research report are among those executives who shape the
industry's direction and pave the road into its future. Gaining their insight
into where they believe the industry will go illustrates where they will try to
take it. Discussing today the plans they have and the choices they'll
anticipate making affords the opportunity to plan ahead.
(See individual reports on the future of open booking; the travel manager's role; data collection, management and security; travel management companies; the roles of global distribution systems and online booking tools; payment systems; airline negotiating; and hotel negotiating.)
BTN appreciates
the dozens of executives who agreed not only to be subjected to an interview on
this topic but also were willing to put their names on their predictions. There
was enough dissention among their opinions that, seven years from now, some
will prove to be visionaries while speculation from others will prove
off-target.
In fact, the interviewed executives provided more
interesting speculation than could fit in the confines of this report. As such,
continued coverage of this topic in the weeks and months ahead will be featured
on businesstravelnews.com and in subsequent print issues of Business Travel News.
BTN thanks all of
those who participated in the making of this report.
Methodology & Demographics
Business Travel News'
Vision: 2020 is a research report designed to elicit predictions on the state
of the business travel industry in the year 2020. To do so, BTN's editors created a survey of travel
buyers, suppliers, consultants and other related individuals, and conducted
in-depth interviews with present and former industry executives.
BTN in August and
September 2013 conducted the survey through Equation Research. A direct link to
the online survey was emailed to members of the The BTN Group Advisory Board
and Research Council, travel buyers from companies listed in the 2013 BTN Corporate Travel 100, and readers of
BTN sister publication The Beat as well as The BTN Group's
Corporate Travel Supplier Outlook newsletter. The survey included multiple-choice
and open-ended questions. Some of those responses are reproduced anonymously in
the following pages.
Of the 259 qualified respondents to the survey, 106 were
corporate travel buyers and/or managers, and 21 were corporate travel agents.
The remainder were corporate travel suppliers and consultants (see chart). Any
responses received from those who did not work in the corporate travel industry
were not included in the totals. Not every respondent answered every question.
Equation Research tabulated all results.
BTN editors
concurrently developed a list of travel executives, including travel buyers,
suppliers and consultants, including those who have retired from active
industry employment, to interview on this topic; those interviewees may or may
not have participated in the online survey. The interviews largely were
conducted from August through October. BTN
plans to publish further material from these interviews online and in print in
the coming weeks and months.
This report
originally appeared in the Nov. 11, 2013, edition of Business Travel News.