Martin Ferguson is a strategic communications and events consultant. He was vice president of global communications, public affairs and events for American Express Global Business Travel for nearly a decade until last month. Previously, he led corporate communications in EMEA for Sabre Holdings and was editor of Buying Business Travel.
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." That was Mark Twain. As we try and keep pace with the nascent months of this second (and final?) Trump administration, it's hard not to hear the familiar rhythm of economic nationalism beating once again.
Central to the President's playbook is the dramatic, market-bashing overhaul of trade policy—including sweeping new tariffs on imports from China, alongside a broader framework designed to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. While the details remain in flux (and often depend on which aide is whispering in which ear), the intent seems clear: rewire global trade flows to favor American production.
On face value, this is about steel, semiconductors and solar panels. But zoom in to reveal something more fundamental: a philosophical pivot away from open markets and shared prosperity toward strategic decoupling and economic self-interest. For international business travel—a sector built on the idea that connections drive growth—this is a potential curveball.
Now, let's be clear: This isn't the end of globalization. But it could be the demise of a certain stripe—the one that assumed a single, seamless system directed largely by Washington and adopted obediently by the rest of us. Instead, we're witnessing a transition to multipolar globalization: a world of parallel trading blocs, regional supply chains and diverse models of economic cooperation. A world in which the U.S. is still a dominant force, for sure, but no longer the gravitational center around which everything and everyone else orbits.
And that, ironically, could make business travel even more important.
Because when trade becomes more complex, relationships matter more. When supply chains splinter, local knowledge becomes invaluable. When companies seek growth outside their own backyard, they need people on the ground—building trust, navigating nuance, and making things happen.
Which brings us to the opportunity.
Travel managers—particularly those with curiosity, commercial savvy and a bit of geopolitical awareness—are perfectly placed to help their organizations steer through the waves. Not just by adapting travel policy, but by helping shape how their business explores and activates new markets.
But how?
First, develop a solid understanding of what makes doing business different from one country to the next. Currency quirks, language barriers, payment infrastructure (or lack thereof), traveler behaviors—these aren't footnotes; they're fundamentals.
Second, talk to commercial leaders and align closely with the company's growth strategy. Where is the business looking to invest, expand or diversify? Travel teams can become enablers of that strategy, but only if they know in which direction the ship is sailing.
Third, build regional capability. That means sourcing the right suppliers, hiring the right people, and ensuring you've got real-world insight—not just dashboards and PowerPoints—in the places that matter. Talk to your existing TMC about how to evolve together.
As Stewart Harvey—one of the wisest travel thinkers I know—often reminds me, the difference between those who survive change and those who thrive in it is adaptability. Or to put it another way: it's not the fittest who survive, but those who adapt first.
Yes, this new trading climate will be painful in the short term. Yes, it may require unwinding long-established travel patterns and rethinking supplier relationships. But for those with speed and agility, it's a chance to optimize and innovate—not just react.
As Amex GBT's Jason Geall put it last year in a speech to the industry: "We must take change by the hand before it grabs us by the throat." At the time, his line was about the acceleration of Gen AI and technology. But the idea is just as apt when it comes to geopolitics and global trade.
Because this isn't just about tariffs or policy memos. It's about a new world order taking shape, one where complexity is the norm and progress doesn't follow a straight line.
Business travel, with all its messiness and magic, will be central to navigating that world. And travel managers—the best of them—can be more than policy overlords. They'll act as translators between strategy and execution. Explorers of new markets. Architects of global growth.
So yes, the trade winds may be shifting. But they always are.
The question is not whether we brace for impact. The question is whether we chart a new course. Because, as the Stoic philosopher Seneca once said: "If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favorable."
This is no time to drift. Set your course, trim your sails, and go.