BCD Travel forecasts only a slight year-over-year increase in global average airline ticket prices and a larger increase in global average daily hotel rates in 2026, according to the travel management company's Travel Market Report, published on Thursday.
BCD projects global average air ticket prices will increase 1.1 percent year over year in 2026, although that is skewed by "weak airfares inflation in the Americas." The average ticket price in North America is projected to increase by 0.4 percent and in Latin America by 0.8 percent, according to the forecast. In other global regions, the increase is expected to be above that average, with the biggest increases in Africa, up 2.5 percent, and Asia, up 2 percent.
On a global basis, intercontinental airfares are expected to increase at a higher rate than regional airfares, according to BCD. The report forecasts an increase of 1 percent year over year in regional business-class fares and an increase of 0.9 percent in regional economy fares. Intercontinental fares will be up by 2.2 percent in business class and by 2.4 percent in economy, according to the report.
While the global numbers show economy and business-class fares increasing at close to the same rate, that also is skewed by North America's "clear exceptionalism," BCD said. Business-class fares in North America are expected to rise by 1 percent year over year on regional routes and by 1.5 percent on intercontinental routes, compared with a 0.3 percent increase on regional-route economy fares and a 0.5 percent on intercontinental-route business fares.
In other regions, economy fares will "rise at the same pace or more quickly than business fares" on regional routes as well as intercontinental routes, with the exception of Latin America.
BCD projects average daily hotel rates in 2026 will increase by 4.9 percent year over year globally, with aggregate increases in Africa, Asia and Europe all sitting close to that average. Increases in North America and the Southwest Pacific region will be below that average—up 2.2 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively—while the Middle East and Latin America will see increases above that average, up 8.2 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively.
Within the U.S., BCD projects hotel ADRs will be up 2 percent year over year. The increase below the regional average is due largely to demand softening among "cost-conscious leisure travelers," which affects largely the economy and midscale tiers.
"However, above average ADR rises may be expected for stays in upscale, upper upscale and luxury properties," according to the report. "These are still benefiting from strong demand from corporate travelers, group meetings and large-scale events."
The report did not provide a global average project for car rental rates, noting that "extreme" differences in pricing particularly in countries in the Asia/Pacific region made even a regional aggregate difficult. Average car rental rates in China, for example, in 2025 are forecast to increase 69 percent year over year, while average car rental rates in Singapore are forecast to drop 48 percent.
In general, BCD said "car rental rates will … continue to rise for corporate customers." For negotiated rates, the TMC said it expects rate increases in 2026 to be less than those in 2025, in the range of 2 percent to 4 percent year over year.