Global car rental prices over the next 12 months are projected to remain stable or increase moderately, according to the latest American Express Global Business Travel Consulting Ground Monitor report, released Monday.
What could push up prices in certain geographies are taxes and the availability of cars to rent, according to Amex GBT Consulting, which also noted geopolitical upheaval and commodity price uncertainty, offset partly by an improved supply-demand balance in rental car fleets.
The company used Meta's Prophet time series modeling tool to generate forecasted prices for the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027. Data for the analysis came from Amex GBT's data lake. Inflation and GDP forecasts were from the International Monetary Fund, and the report covers only those countries where Amex GBT has sufficient car rental data to support the forecast model.
North America
Car rental rates in North America for the U.S. and Canada each are projected to increase 1.5 percent to 2 percent year over year for the next 12 months. That's about level with last year's U.S. forecast but a lower increase for Canada, which for 2025-2026 had been projected to see increases of 2.5 percent to 3 percent.
The report cited increasing auto insurance rates, which could lead car rental companies to seek to capture those costs through higher pricing, according to the travel management company.
Amex GBT also cited what it called "significant growth in the number and value of city surcharges in North America," including day-of-week surcharges and fees applied by airports. Surcharges are not new—BTN covered them 30 years ago—but "are becoming more common," according to the report.
Europe
European car rental price projections vary by country, with demand expected to "stay firm" as cash-strapped businesses tend to rent before they buy fleet, according to the report, and improved supply will keep a lid on average price increases.
Prices in France and Spain each are projected to remain flat or increase 0.5 percent year over year. But sometimes rental rates are "highly seasonal" in tourist-friendly regions with corporate customers sometimes paying seasonal surcharges, according to Amex GBT. The U.K. could see prices increase 0.6 percent to 1.3 percent compared with a year prior with "recovering vehicle supply and strong competition pushing rates down."
Germany also is projected to have modest increases of 1 percent to 2 percent with "fleet scarcity" preventing prices from declining, according to the report. Meanwhile, Scandinavian car rental rates also are expected to increase modestly, from 1 percent to 2.5 percent, while the Netherlands is on the high end with projected increases of 4 percent to 5 percent. The later increases are due to increasing motor vehicle taxes increasing the total cost of ownership for rental fleets.
Asia-Pacific
Australia is the only Asia-Pacific country covered in the report, and Amex GBT Consulting projects car rental increases of 3 percent to 3.4 percent year over year. The forecast, however, is lower than the 3 percent to 7 percent projected for the past year.
The supply of vehicles in the country has recovered, which has kept prices from "taking off," according to the report, though corporates renting in remote mining locations could face higher price increases because of limited choice and competition.
Latin America
Car rental prices in Brazil and Chile over the next 12 months each are forecast to increase 2 percent to 4 percent compared with the prior year, "even as the economic outlook for Latin America is muted by global uncertainty."
The region is seeing "healthy growth" in both corporate and leisure demand. Electric vehicles are "gaining ground" in Brazil. By the end of 2025, Brazil's rental fleet included 33,562 EVs, up from just 2,545 in 2021, according to Amex GBT Consulting.
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