Delta Air Lines and American Airlines each have further cut service to Asia, and United Airlines has begun waiving change fees against weaker demand related to the COVID-19 outbreak.
On Wednesday, Delta announced cutbacks on service to Japan through April 30, including suspension of its seasonal service between Seattle and Osaka. Routes that will be trimmed back from daily service include flights between Tokyo and each Portland, Atlanta and Minneapolis as well as daily service between Nagoya and both Detroit and Honolulu. Daily service will remain between Tokyo and each Detroit, Los Angeles and Honolulu. Delta also is continuing its shifting of flights from Narita to Haneda later this month as planned, according to the carrier.
American Airlines, meanwhile, as of Wednesday has suspended service between Dallas-Fort Worth and Seoul, with plans to resume on April 25.
(Update, March 4): United on Wednesday said that it would reduce its international schedule in April by 20 percent and its schedule across the United States and Canada by 10 percent, with details of those schedule reductions to go public on Saturday. The international service reductions include the already-announced suspended service to Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu and Hong Kong.
"All of our schedule reductions are, importantly, being implemented in a way that minimizes the impact on our employees and our operations," CEO Oscar Munoz and president Scott Kirby said in a letter to employees. "For example, we're reducing the number of frequencies per week, finding routes with alternative travel options via other United hubs and delaying start dates for seasonal travel to certain destinations, without closing any domestic stations."
The carrier also has begun planning for cuts to domestic service in May, according to the letter.
Airlines also are continuing to relax change fees to assuage booking fears. United on Tuesday said it now is waiving change fees for any booking, domestic or international, made through March 31, regardless of fare type. American earlier this week announced a change fee waiver for flights booked through March 16, and Delta is waiving its change fee for all international flights booked through the end of this month.
(Update, March 5): American Airlines has extended its change fee waiver for all tickets purchased through March 31.
European airlines are expanding change fee waivers as well. Virgin Atlantic on Wednesday announced it was waiving change fees for tickets issued in March for travel through Sept. 30, and partner Air France-KLM expanded its waivers for tickets booked through the end of the month to cover its entire network. British Airways is waiving change fees on bookings through March 16.
Assessing the Broader Impact
The potential effect of the virus on the aviation industry remains hard to quantify. Reuters on Wednesday reported that Lufthansa, for example, is grounding 150 aircraft and is bracing for even worse demand effects, though it also said demand could stabilize after a few weeks. The carrier said that it could cut short- and medium-haul flights by up to 25 percent over the coming weeks due to "the accelerated spread of the coronavirus … in Europe."
In a research note from this week's International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading Conference, Cowen analyst Helane Becker noted a "somber" mood.
"Airlines are preparing capacity cuts and working to adjust costs to address the decline in revenues that will come from a drop in corporate travel," according to Becker, who also noted that corporate travel comprises between 15 percent and 20 percent of total airline revenues.
In the U.S., some of those capacity cuts have been redeployed on domestic routes, particularly as carriers remain unable to use Boeing 737 Max aircraft in their fleet, according to OAG aviation analyst John Grant. Data from the last month shows U.S. carriers have been increasing widebody aircraft services out of their hubs, he said.
"Such short-term fleet changes create great opportunities for the regular domestic road warrior faced with a deeper seat, more legroom and more space in which to catch up on business or catch up on some well-deserved sleep," Grant said in an OAG blog post. "However, enjoy the experience, because … hopefully sooner than later, those planes are heading back to Asia."
As China reports a slowdown in the spread of the virus, about 18,200 flights—a total of 2.9 million scheduled seats—have come back onboard in China's domestic aviation market, Grant said in a separate analysis piece. Globally, however, Becker said the airline industry's recovery will likely be slow.
"We expect that travel to Asia will take longer to recover than travel elsewhere in the world, but travel to Europe might not recover until after the peak summer months, depending on the duration of the virus in the U.S.," she said.