Op-Ed: Signs Of Optimism For Next Year
Major challenges confronted corporate travel buyers in 2009. The difficult economic climate prompted additional scrutiny of travel and entertainment spending and tightening of travel policies to deliver much-needed savings for businesses. Challenges also trigger opportunities, however, and 2010 offers signs of optimism for business travel as economies stabilize around the world.
To help our clients better understand the 2010 environment, Egencia examined conditions in more than 35 cities in North America, Europe and Asia/Pacific. For each market, we conducted an in-depth diagnostic covering macroeconomic factors and industry-specific behaviors, as well as supply and demand pressure.
At a high level, our research highlighted the driving trends for the key segments of air, hotel and car. We anticipate:
• Airfares for corporate travelers to major destinations rising 5 to 10 percent, reflecting recent merger activity, an increase in corporate travel demand and airlines' continued capacity discipline
• Average daily hotel rates of flat to negative 5 percent, year over year, in part due to increased supply and reduced demand resulting from higher airfares
• Car rental prices decreasing 5 percent, year over year, continuing on a strong 2009 trend as more auto-loan financing becomes available and rental agencies refurbish their fleets
In North America, we expect markets like Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle to see double-digit domestic airfare increases, with San Diego leading the pack at 16 percent. Airfare increases for European and Asia/Pacific destinations will remain in single digits with Barcelona, Frankfurt, Beijing and Delhi at 4 percent and above.
As air prices rise, the opportunity for extensive discounting wanes. Some carriers are being more creative in what they offer, including upgrades, status matches and such additional amenities as waived bag fees. The overall opportunity is limited, however, especially for travel programs that have consolidated regional and global spend.
The negotiating environment for hotel partnerships is a completely different story and offers significant opportunity for the corporate travel program that has the data, tools and flexibility to show value to a hotel partner. As with all our analyses, the impact of the continued reduction in hotel rates varies by individual market dynamics.
An increase in hotel capacity due to the opening of new properties in many markets has resulted in flat to moderate average daily rate declines. Despite oversupply, cities that typically attract large convention business will experience moderate pressure, given modest expectations for the 2010 convention season. Financial and government centers, especially in Europe, will rebound more quickly after significant declines in 2010.
Our Egencia Hotel Negotiability Index for 2010 suggests buyers have strong discount opportunities in nearly every major North American city, except Boston and Washington, D.C., where they should find moderate negotiating ability.
In Europe, the picture is more mixed. Negotiating in the European Union will be strongest in Amsterdam, Barcelona, Madrid and Milan and low in Berlin, Frankfurt, London and Paris. In Asia/Pacific, strong opportunities to work with supply partners are likely in major destinations, especially in China and India.
While 2010 does represent a mixed negotiating environment, travel managers still will benefit from stronger travel programs and a focus on seeking a return on investment. 2009 has seen a distinct shift to mandated programs and stricter approval processes. We see this trend toward proactive travel management increase in 2010.
Premium travel also has been restricted or removed for many. Increased use of advance booking and diligent tracking of unused tickets are also here to stay as companies focus on refining their travel programs to save the extra dollar.
Many corporations also are facing the next frontier of travel management—meetings and incentives. Corporations are assessing their meetings and transient spend to maximize corporate discounts, enhance employee security and drive greater focus on ROI. This is an area worthy of stronger focus through 2010 and one that will become integral to a highly effective corporate travel program.