Business travel is tracking to reach pre-pandemic levels in terms of dollars spent next year, but a recovery in terms of volume is further off than that, according to analysis from PwC U.S. airline and travel practice leader Jonathan Kletzel.
Corporate travel has continued to "inch up," Kletzel told BTN. "Events are back, and they're back with what seems like a vengeance, and traditional corporate travel is climbing back," he said.
At the same time, the economy "is still in a weird place" which has led to some tentativeness on the corporate side to raise travel budgets, according to Kletzel. Traditional corporate travel patterns remain disrupted by the growth in remote work as well, alongside growing efforts for sustainability curtailing some travel and spurring companies to urge travelers to get more productivity out of single trips.
"We may get to dollars, but I don't think we'll get to volumes in 2024," Kletzel said. "Will corporate travel return in the same pattern? I think the general consensus is no."
With current travel price inflation currently at about 10 percent to 15 percent of 2019 levels, a full return in business travel spending in 2024 would indicate a return of about 85 to 90 percent of volume, Kletzel added.
Those higher prices could ease a bit next year, however, Kletzel said. The PwC Holiday Outlook, released last month and based on responses from 4,000 consumers fielded in July, showed a strong leisure travel trend for the upcoming holiday season, with 47 percent of U.S. consumers planning to travel and spending set to be up about 12 percent compared with the 2022 holiday season. Even so, there also are signs that leisure demand will soften.
"Even though consumption is strong, savings are down that people built up during the pandemic, and consumer debt is climbing rapidly," Kletzel said. "At least at the lower end of discretionary income, you're seeing the leisure side start to soften. It still seems to be pretty strong at the higher end."
As such, next year is likely to see growing corporate spending and slowing leisure spending, and pricing will depend on where that equilibrium ends up. "You're already starting to see prices come down a bit six months out," Kletzel said.