Travel Index Bounces Back In September

<B> Travel Index Bounces Back In September</B>

The September Travel Business Roundtable Index of Leading Economic Indicators showed a rebound in growth of 0.7 percent, following a 0.7 percent decline in August.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board's U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators showed a decline of 0.1 percent in September, following completely flat figures for August.

The rebound in the TBR Index suggests that the August dip could be merely a statistical anomaly. The U.S. Index numbers, however, are consistent with those reported for the past year and point to a decline in overall U.S. growth to 3 percent for 2000, rather than the 4 percent growth that the economy showed during the previous three-year period.

Dr. James Howell, the economist who produces the TBR Index, said that "there is considerable momentum in the economy, enough to easily carry the current growth period through 2000. The 1991-2000-plus growth period will go into the record books as the largest peace-time expansion on record." Still, he noted his concerns--particularly regarding the 0.13 percent drop in the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for September.

Of the other eight components of the TBR Index for September, four were particularly strong and four were flat or showed only slight increases.

The strongest performance came from total Airlines Reporting Corp. sales, which was up 0.37 percent. However, these results were recorded for the month before the latest round of cuts in agency commissions.

Also scoring well were hotel/motel occupancy rate and revenue index as reported by Smith Travel Research, at 0.22 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, and retail sales at eating and drinking establishments, which grew by 0.7 percent, according to the Department of Commerce and Bureau of Census.

Modest gains in September came from personal consumption expenditures for travel and other discretionary products provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which showed only 0.4 percent growth.

A flat performance was reported for Air Transport Association revenue passenger miles, the Bureau of Labor Statistics level of travel industry employment and the daily rental car price index provided by a top industry provider.