The Global Business Travel Association expects
2017 U.S. business travel spending to reach $296.1 billion, a 4.4 percent
year-over-year increase over 2016. That's more than half a percentage point
higher than the 2017 projection GBTA made during the third quarter. U.S. person
trips for 2017 are slated to hit 537.1 million, a 2.9 percent increase over 2016
and up 2 percentage points from GBTA's previous advice.
GBTA expects this momentum to carry into
2018, with the number of business trips to total 553.7 million in 2018.
Business travel spending in 2018 is expected to top $311.7 billion, a 5.2
percent rise over 2017.
The adjustments owed to better economic growth
expectations domestically, resulting from President Donald Trump's presidential
victory, and to optimistic growth expectations in foreign markets. But the forecast
was completed in January before Trump took office. His policy initiatives could
greatly affect the forecast going forward. Most notably, his executive order banning travel to
the U.S. from seven Muslim-majority countries is estimated to have lost the
travel industry about $185 million in business
travel bookings.
"The ultimate concern is that the lasting impact of the
travel ban and any future appeals around it could cause other countries beyond
just those named in the ban to think twice about planning meetings and events
in the United States," said GBTA executive director and
COO Michael McCormick. "This could create a huge impact, as each
inbound international business trip increases U.S. merchandise exports to the
visited country by $36,000 per year and each overseas traveler spends
approximately $5,000 when they visit. Closing our borders sends a message to
the world that the United States is closed for business."
Instead of closing U.S. borders, GBTA
supports investments in security programs that enable more information sharing
between governments to ensure adequate vetting of travelers.
Trump's protectionist trade policies, which
include renegotiating or withdrawing from such trade deals as the North
American Free Trade Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, could improve
domestic business travel, but "international retaliation would be
highly likely and the overall net impact could quite possibly be negative,"
McCormick said.
Trump's initiatives to
reduce corporate tax rates, reduce unnecessary regulation and increase infrastructure
spending could boost business travel spending, but only if the profits are not
used to buy back company stock or raise dividend payments, according to GBTA. It
also remains unclear whether Trump's border restrictions would outweigh the potential
positive effects of these other policies, McCormick noted.