New U.S. hotel industry forecasts from both STR and HVS anticipate that the full-year occupancy level will end the year at around 42 percent, according to information presented by the companies at Thursday's New York University International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference.
HVS predicts average 2020 daily rate to come in at $105, while STR's number is $103.65, representing year-over-year declines of 20.3 percent and 21 percent, respectively. Both companies anticipate revenue per available room to drop about 49.5 percent to $44. The numbers take total room occupancy into account, which includes temporary hotel closures.
STR, which released its forecast with Tourism Economics, adjusted its 2020 forecast slightly up from its August figures, which had projected year-end occupancy at 39.8 percent and RevPAR at $41.31. ADR changed only slightly from $103.71. Its 2021 forecast remained relatively the same, and it noted that RevPAR still would not fully recover until 2024.
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"The good news is demand was a little better in September and the first part of October than anticipated," said STR president Amanda Hite during the NYU presentation. "For 2021, the first quarter will continue to be hard."
She added that during the first half of 2021, the country will be better able to control the virus through therapeutics and mask wearing, and there is the potential for a vaccine. "A pickup in business will happen in the second half of the year," she said. "We expect in the second quarter to start to see essential meetings coming in, small to medium-size events, that will help with demand. But 52.2 percent occupancy at the end of 2021 is still only 80 percent of 2019 demand."
HVS president and CEO Stephen Rushmore Jr. concurred. "We're reasonably confident that the next six to seven months will be really tough for hotels," he said. "There is no sugarcoating it. Hold on tightly. But things will get significantly better and travel will recover quite aggressively."
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