Hotel rates will rise modestly in most global markets in 2027, with the largest increases in Latin America and parts of Europe and near-flat growth across much of North America, according to American Express Global Business Travel's Hotel Monitor, published on Tuesday.
For 2027, Amex GBT gives each city's forecast as a range rather than a single figure, citing the Middle East conflict and commodity price volatility. The Monitor is based on data from Amex GBT's data lake along with inflation and GDP forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, modeled with open-source software Prophet. All prices are in local currency.
"If the Middle East conflict does not resolve quickly or if global inflation remains in line with the IMF’s July World Economic Outlook forecast of 4.7 percent for 2026, we advise you use the lower forecast," Amex GBT Consulting director of consulting strategy Sara Andell wrote in the report. "If global inflation rises beyond 4.7 percent, use the upper forecast in the range."
Amex GBT expects year-over-year increases in 2027 in most North American cities to stay at or below 3 percent. The two exceptions are the "hotspots" of Mexico City, which has the region's highest projected range at 4.7 percent to 7.1 percent, and San Francisco, at 3.6 percent to 5.4 percent. Across most U.S. markets, the hotel construction pipeline is keeping supply in step with demand, according to the Monitor. Seattle has the region's lowest projection, flat to 0.8 percent. Toronto is forecast at 0.5 percent to 1.9 percent.
Europe should see "solid" rate increases, with corporate and leisure demand holding up despite modest growth forecasts for the eurozone and the U.K. Madrid has the highest upper-end 2027 forecast at a 6.1 percent to 9.2 percent increase year over year, followed by Edinburgh at 6.2 percent to 7.1 percent. Edinburgh in July became the first U.K. destination to levy a citywide tourist tax, charged at 5 percent of the booking cost, and Amex GBT expects other U.K. cities to follow. The Monitor projects London at 3.6 percent to 5.4 percent, Paris at 3.1 percent to 4.8 percent and Frankfurt at 3.1 percent to 4.7 percent. Dublin has the region's lowest range at 2.7 percent to 4 percent.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East conflict has raised airfares, though Amex GBT said corporates haven't responded by booking lower-tier hotels. Seoul leads the region with a 2027 rate projection of 4.3 percent to 6.4 percent higher year over year. India's rate growth should moderate but remain strong, at 5 percent to 5.5 percent in Bengaluru and 4.5 percent to 5 percent in Delhi. Key business cities in China are expected to see flat to moderate rate growth as supply continues to outpace demand. Singapore is forecast to increase 0.8 percent to 1.6 percent.
Latin America has the Monitor's highest 2027 projected rate increases. São Paulo leads at 10.9 percent to 12.2 percent, driven by corporate demand, including from Brazil's expanding oil and gas sector. Brazil has more than 20,000 hotel rooms in its pipeline, but that inventory won't arrive in time to curb 2027 rates, according to Amex GBT, and the large share of independent hotels can make negotiations challenging. Buenos Aires rates are forecast to increase 8.1 percent to 8.7 percent and Santiago 2.8 percent to 4.2 percent.
In the Middle East and Africa, the conflict continues to weigh on Gulf demand. Amex GBT projects Dubai rates will rise 1 percent to 2 percent and said buyers could negotiate even more favorable rates as hoteliers work to lure visitors back. Riyadh is forecast to increase 1.5 percent to 3.2 percent and Abu Dhabi 1.7 percent to 4.1 percent. Johannesburg has the region's highest range at 4.6 percent to 7.3 percent.