Uncertainty to Strategy: Navigating the Evolving Landscape of Business Travel Risk

With business travel expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024 and crises continuing to emerge worldwide, companies are recognizing the need for robust planning. Our world order has changed drastically in recent years. In response to a shifting global landscape, longstanding geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have erupted into wars. Their impact, which is felt throughout the surrounding regions and across the international business community, stands as a clear reminder of the new world in which we now live. 

Corporations must be increasingly vigilant in protecting their travelers from existing conflicts and safeguarding them against potential threats in the future. Safety isn’t impossible, it just requires intentionality. Here are some key ways corporations can approach the current business travel risk landscape to ensure the safety of their employees, infrastructure and assets, no matter where they are.

Understand Geopolitics

Traditional risk management has long included elements such as crime rates, government stability and natural disasters. While these are essential to understanding the threat of traveling abroad, they are no longer sufficient alone. Comprehensive risk assessments must account for the rise of geopolitical tensions when considering international travel. Overlaying geopolitics within resources like the 2024 Global Guardian Risk Map provides a deeper level of insight into areas such as supply chains, government stability and the ability to work across borders. 

Understanding the underlying tensions that drive existing threats also allows corporations to anticipate and prepare for new threats. Conflict is rarely isolated, with the effects often rippling throughout the surrounding regions. The conflict in Gaza, for instance, has evolved into a regional issue that continues to have a serious impact on Red Sea shipping lanes and the international economy. Understanding the nuanced relationships between nation-states and different regional, political and ethnic groups helps equip corporate executives to make the best decisions for their personnel and stakeholders.

Time has made it increasingly clear that geopolitics dictates the future of international business. Having an in-depth understanding of the players, motivations and potential outcomes in these situations is the key to successfully navigating business abroad.

Get Specific

Painting with broad brush strokes about “high-risk” or “low-risk” countries ignores the nuances of a geopolitical world. Modern risk involves much more than the threat of a tsunami or gang violence, and not all travelers face the same threats. For instance, a traveler’s connection to certain industries or affiliation with specific political stances can dramatically alter the level of risk associated with international travel. For example, China might be a higher-risk destination for a business executive in the defense industry than for a tourist with no ties to politics or national security. In the information age, foreign governments can mine travelers’ backgrounds, and threats to traveler safety can be buried in their past.

Thoroughly vetting every employee before travel allows companies to have a detailed understanding of their risk levels. Partnering with private agencies to identify any potential causes for detainment is critical to ensuring the safety of all staff members. This assessment allows companies to continue safely sending vetted employees to countries experiencing geopolitical friction, rather than simply labeling them “high risk” and losing all access.

Think in Terms of “What Is Possible”

Corporate America needs to shift its mindset to consider what is in the realm of possible, not just what is normal. This is where businesses keep getting caught. When Russia invaded Ukraine, unprepared corporations lost billions of dollars. An invasion or blockade of the Taiwan Strait would have a profound impact on the global economy, potentially totaling more than $10 trillion. The world is constantly shifting, and corporate leaders must stay proactive about anticipating and mitigating threats. 

Risks that seemed outrageous or farfetched in prior years are now accepted as a common feature of international business travel. Cyber attacks, hacking, ransomware, stolen IP, even the detainment of corporate executives—the threats to travelers and their companies are constantly expanding. 

Instead of waiting for the next crisis, corporate executives must begin preparing now for eventualities in the short, medium and long term. Planning for possibilities such as losing a market or supply chain due to interstate conflicts isn’t going the extra mile anymore. It’s smart and necessary business. Preparing for the expected is no longer enough; corporations must be ready for the unexpected.

Understand the Principles of Preparedness 

Building a principles-based approach around potential risks is central to creating the framework that keeps companies safe amidst a wide range of threats. Cementing the basic principles—communications, ability to respond, assets in and around the crisis zone—is integral to protecting a company’s people and infrastructure, especially since these principles can be applied to almost any emergency.

Make no mistake, the threats of operating within our changing world will continue to evolve. Developing a nuanced understanding of the geopolitical underpinnings of nation-states is rapidly emerging as a mandatory precaution for executives. Change is constant—and planning for resiliency is key to ensuring the safety of employees, assets and infrastructure.