A new research report
critical of the U.S. government's tarmac delay rule estimates that at least
2,600 flights will be canceled this year as a direct result of airline efforts
to comply with the Department of Transportation's three-hour limit. DOT,
however, claimed the research, unveiled Tuesday by airline analysis and
consulting firms The Airline Zone and Marks Aviation LLC, extrapolated the
findings from minimal data and arrives at "questionable" conclusions.
The rule in question, issued in December 2009 and enacted in late April,
requires that U.S. airlines allow passengers to deplane if a domestic tarmac
delay reaches three hours or face fines of up to $27,500 per passenger.
The paper notes that as
airlines face severe fines, many elect to return to the gate
"significantly before the three-hour cutoff" or cancel flights prematurely.
"Airlines are canceling flights that would not otherwise be impacted to
avoid prohibitive and disproportionate fines," the paper notes, later
concluding, "DOT's tarmac rules and punitive fine threats have driven significant
cancelations and public costs far in excess of quantifiable benefits." The
authors urged DOT and other regulators to reexamine the rules, which apply to
domestic airlines but soon could apply to foreign carriers operating in the
United States as well.
The paper suggests that the number of annual cancelations related to the tarmac
rule likely would surpass 2,600 due to a ripple effect of cancelations through
the system. "For every three-hour tarmac delay prevented by the rule, two
flights will be directly canceled and another two flights indirectly canceled,"
the paper notes, as researchers estimate an additional 2,600 will likely be
canceled "due to aircraft availability and network design."
The research pays close attention to May 2010 delay and cancelation data,
particularly for flights that sit on the tarmac for at least two hours. The
paper notes, "Operational data from May 2010 demonstrate significant
increases in returns to gate and cancelations of flights that pass two hours of
tarmac time." During that first month, the researchers said airlines
canceled at least 140 flights as a direct result of the tarmac rules.
DOT in a statement Tuesday said, "The study, conducted by two business
consultants for aviation companies, offers a misleading and premature
assessment of the impact of the new passenger protections."
DOT noted the findings were based largely on a single month of airline on-time
and cancelation data—collected for May 2010, the first full month in which
airlines operated under the new rules—calling that "far too narrow to
yield defensible conclusions about future airline trends."
"Further, the data reported in May 2010 do not support the industry
consultants' claims about rising numbers of airline cancelations," DOT
continued. "While there was a slight increase in airline cancelations in
May 2010 compared with May 2009, an analysis of May cancelations over the last
15 years shows that cancelations in May 2010 were below average." DOT said
the overall rate of May 2010 cancelations was 1.24 percent, compared to a 1.51
percent rate "for all 15 previous Mays with comparable data."
The government, however, plans to conduct its own study on the impact of the
tarmac delay rule, Government Accountability Office representative Gerald
Dillingham said during a Congressional subcommittee hearing last week.
"There's only been a month of data to this point, and we are waiting on a
little more time to pass so we have something to base our study on,"
Dillingham said.