Geopolitical events in the Middle East restrained March global air demand, according to the latest report from the International Air Transport Association.
March total demand, as measured in revenue passenger kilometers, increased 2.1 percent year over year. However, outside of the Middle East, demand increased 8 percent for the period, according to IATA. Capacity, as measured in available seat kilometers, declined 1.7 percent compared with March 2025, while load factor increased 3.1 percentage points to 83.6 percent.
International demand in March fell 0.6 percent year over year, led by the 60.8 percent decline in traffic by carriers in the Middle East, according to IATA. Capacity declined 6.2 percent compared with March 2025. International load factor increased 4.7 percentage points to 84.1 percent.
March domestic demand increased 6.5 percent year over year, while capacity increased 5.6 percent for the period. Load factor was up 0.7 percentage points to 83 percent.
"Everybody's watching what's happening with jet fuel—both supply and pricing," IATA director general Willie Walsh said in a statement. "On the supply side, over the next months we could see shortages in parts of the world with high dependence on supplies from the Gulf, especially in Asia and Europe. And the extraordinarily high cost of jet fuel is increasingly being reflected in ticket prices. While this has not impacted March traffic or forward bookings to date, it remains to be seen at what point high prices could start to shift passenger behavior."
[Report continues below chart.]
Outside of the Middle East, March international traffic by region showed double-digit year-over-year increases for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia-Pacific. Europe traffic was up 7.7 percent for the period, while North America traffic reported a gain of 3.7 percent.
International capacity increases for March were more muted, with Latin America and the Caribbean posting the largest growth at 8.4 percent year over year, followed by Africa at 4.2 percent.
March domestic demand by country was led by China, with a 13.7 percent increase year over year. Brazil reported a 10.8 percent gain. India is the only country in IATA's report to post a demand decline for the period, of 1 percent. On the capacity front, China was up 13.1 percent year over year, but India and Japan reported declines, of 0.2 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively. U.S. capacity in March was flat.
RELATED: IATA: February Domestic Demand Accelerates