Total May air demand, as measured in revenue passenger kilometers, declined 2.2 percent year over year, according to the International Air Transport Association, which cited the war in Iran as a key factor for the drop for the third consecutive month. Even when excluding the Middle East, demand increased by just 0.7 percent compared with May 2025.
May total capacity, as measured in available seat kilometers, declined 2.3 percent year over year. Load factor was up 0.1 percentage points compared with Mary 2025 to 83.5 percent, a record high for May, according to IATA.
International demand in May fell 1.6 percent year over year. Excluding the Middle East, demand increased 3.1 percent, according to IATA. International capacity declined 2.4 percent for the period, while load factor was 83.7 percent, a 0.7 percentage-point increase.
May domestic demand also declined, by 3.1 percent year over year. Capacity was down 2.1 percent, while domestic load factor was 83 percent, a decline of 0.8 percentage points compared with May 2025.
"May demand still appeared to be largely resilient in the face of high fuel prices and air fares," IATA director general Willie Walsh said in a statement. "While the recent sharp drop in oil prices is an encouraging development, the challenges created by the war will likely persist for some time."
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Total market demand for the Middle East declined by 28.4 percent year over year, after a 46.6 percent decline reported for April 2026. Asia-Pacific and North America also posted declines in demand for May. The former was down 1.4 percent year over year, with the latter down 0.8 percent. Africa reported the highest growth rate at 6.6 percent compared with May 2025.
The Middle East also had the largest rate declines for demand and capacity for international markets in May. Traffic was down 28.8 percent year over year, while capacity declined 24.3 percent. The Middle East international load factor dropped 4.8 percentage points to 76.1 percent. Latin American and the Caribbean posted the largest growth rate in May at 10.5 percent year over year.
May domestic markets were mixed. India demand grew 10.1 percent year over year, with capacity up 7.9 percent. Three countries, however, posted declines. China demand was down 6.2 percent compared with May 2025, the U.S. was down 1.9 percent, and Australia posted a decline of 0.1 percent. Those three also had declines in capacity for the month.
Global May forward ticket sales declined by 7.4 percent year over year, led by the drop in international forward demand, which was down 10.2 percent, according to IATA. Domestic ticket sales "remained resilient," increasing 6 percent year over year.
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