Why Do CWT & Amex GBT's U.S. City Hotel Rate Forecast Differ?
Data sources are a factor in the differences between Carlson Wagonlit Travel and American Express Global Business Travel’s projections for hotel rate changes in U.S. cities. Each travel management company bases its forecast on its own clients’ booking data; that explains some of the variance. Each source also employs a different roster of external sources. CWT uses a statistical model by Rockport Analytics that brings in data from OAG, STR, Moody’s Analytics, the International Monetary Fund, the United Nations and others. Amex GBT employs IMF and STR data, among others. How each TMC weighs each internal and external data point also plays a role. Relatedly, one TMC might lean toward the prices suppliers anticipate, while the other could be closer to travel buyers’ expectations.
What it all means is that the likeliest scenario for each city lies somewhere between the two TMCs’ forecasts. As Bjorn Hanson, a clinical professor at the NYU School of Professional Studies Jonathan M. Tisch Center for Hospitality and Tourism, said, "Sounds like an opening salvo for negotiations."