Differing Forecasts for U.S. Hotels
PwC's Hospitality Directions US puts occupancy at 64.9 percent for 2017, down 0.9 percent from 2016, and ADR at $127.01, up 2.6 percent year over year. CBRE Hotels' Americas Research pegs occupancy at 65.3 percent, down only slightly from 65.4 percent in 2016, and predicts an ADR increase of 3.3 percent in 2017.The 2017 hotel RFP season proved more favorable for buyers
than in recent years, as corporates saw softer rate increases than projected
and a slightly more amenable negotiating climate as the season progressed. "We
saw a really big shift to a buyer's advantage in most of the markets, much more
so than we thought we would," said Eric Jongeling, director of Americas
hotel solutions for Carlson Wagonlit Travel.
Year over year, CWT clients saw 1 percent to 2 percent
average daily rate increases in both the U.S. and Canada. On the West Coast of
the U.S., clients experienced ADR increases of 3 percent to 7 percent, which
were still below CWT's initial projections. Rates in Latin and South America declined
2 percent to 4 percent year over year. Results in Europe and Asia/Pacific
proved to be a mixed bag, as rate increases sat between 0 percent and 2 percent
in both regions. Middle East hotel rates plummeted between 6 percent and 8 percent.
The season also provided a better climate than in previous
years for small and midsize enterprises. "Volume still rules and large
programs are able to see the highest level of discounts," Jongeling said, "but
there's more of an opportunity for smaller types of programs to have their
voices heard."
CWT's results are on par with the rate increases BCD
consultancy Advito reported. Advito/BCD clients saw ADR in North America
increase an average 1.3 percent year over year. Rates also increased slightly
in Europe (0.9 percent), the Southwestern Pacific (1 percent) and Africa (0.3
percent) and remained flat in Asia. ADR declined in both Latin America (2.2
percent) and the Middle East (6.1 percent). Like BCD and CWT, HRS reported
increases late last year.
Key trends and takeaways from the power shift from sellers
to buyers:
The Marriott-Starwood
Merger Loomed Heavy
The recent merger of Marriott International and Starwood
Hotels & Resorts had little impact on the 2017 hotel RFP season, according
to Advito senior director and global hotel practice leader Marwan Batrouni.
Nevertheless, "the Marriott-Starwood consolidation is on everyone's mind. Everyone
is trying to anticipate how things are going to come together next year."
While there were no direct changes this RFP season as a
result of the merger, Jongeling said, Marriott did seem more accommodating than
in seasons past. Last year in a white paper on the Marriott-Starwood merger, CWT
reported that during the 2016 hotel RFP season, Marriott International
declined to bid 18 percent of the time, twice as often as Hilton Worldwide and
more than three times as often as Starwood. This year, Marriott responded
"to more of our bids more quickly and with more frequency than they
historically had," Jongeling said.
Negotiating Proved Valuable
The 2017 hotel RFP season played out in the shadow of a
shifting hotel cycle, broad economic uncertainty and an unprecedented U.S.
presidential race. Had buyers settled at the prices proposed at the start of
the RFP season, they would have missed out on opportunities to save as the
season progressed. "Where we started with the initial bid from hotels was
pretty much in line with our expectations," Jongeling said. "Then, as
we went through negotiations, we saw significant declines from that initial bid
across the board globally."
Advito saw similar results, according to Batrouni. At North
American hotels, for instance, the average initial offer proposed was 2.4
percent higher than the existing contract, but the final average increase came
in at 1.3 percent higher. Similar results played out across all other global
regions.
Dynamic Pricing Didn't
Quite Arrive
With the hotel cycle shifting and a strong desire on the
part of both hoteliers and buyers to shorten the negotiating season, 2017 had
been shaping up to be the year of dynamic pricing. That's not how it played out.
Jongeling said that in spite of heightened conversation
around dynamic pricing going into the season, it didn't take off. "The
[programs] that were always doing it continue to do it," he said.
"Others are looking for opportunities on where it makes the most sense.
It's really shifted from an overall looking at dynamic to 'OK, where's my best
opportunity to have a fixed negotiated versus a dynamic?'"
Batrouni said Advito and BCD took steps last year to make
dynamic rates more attractive for clients going forward. The company now collects
and tracks market information, auditing thousands of properties on a monthly
basis for best available rates. "Dynamics rates have always been somewhat
of a mystery," he said. "If a program is going to be offered 15
percent off of BAR, what does that really mean? Now we have access to a full
year worth of data where we are capturing best available rates, and we can
immediately go back and apply that 15 percent discount to what we captured to
be able to inform clients of what it means in terms of rate to have that
discount."
Buyers Really, Really
Want a Shorter RFP Season
Batrouni and Jongeling both said there was a push from
corporate clients to experiment in the 2017 RFP season.
Advito saw promising results from a new "fast
track" method. Using the previously mentioned market data and a client's
existing negotiated rates, it sent the specific rates the client wanted to pay
to the key properties in the program's key markets. Properties that accepted
moved to the fast track and were highly considered when it came time to make
final acceptances. "This
is the first year where we are going through a fairly robust analysis up front
and coming up with the right, realistic rates that we go in and request before
the RFP process even begins," Batrouni said.
CWT said there was a renewed interest for two-year
agreements from clients trying to avoid the annual RFP headache. "We have
reasons behind why it hasn't worked in the past," he said, citing rate
changes that often lead either the supplier or the travel buyer to prompt
renegotiations. "But I know that push to do it is going to continue to
happen."
Jongeling said corporates included fewer preferred
hotels in their programs, instead switching to rate caps per market. That reduces
the number of RFPs a program sends out and comes off as more traveler friendly
because it allows more choices for where to stay.