With Clock Ticking, Some Fly In The Face Of Y2K
<B> With Clock Ticking, Some Fly In The Face Of Y2K</B>
By Barbara Cook and Jay Campbell
While the worldwide aviation industry is spending billions of dollars to ensure there will be no problems in air travel associated with the millennium bug, various officials are beginning to warn the public that they may not be able to get to every component in time.
The industrywide effort--led by airlines, airports, government agencies, air traffic control organizations and aviation industry suppliers--has come under the careful scrutiny of various government entities, and the results of their reviews have been mixed.
The Federal Aviation Administration, for example, received a failing grade on its preparedness from a House subcommittee, but maintains it will pass the final exam on June 30.
Overall, the federal government's efforts to deal with anticipated Y2K problems merited a C+ grade recently from the House Subcommittee on Government Management, Information and Technology. The subcommittee has been rating progress on year 2000 issues since early 1998, according to chairman Rep. Stephen Horn (R-Calif.).
"The Department of Transportation is moving toward January 1 at a snail's pace, with only 53 percent of its systems Year 2000 compliant," Horn said. "This quarter, the department reported a miserable 2 percent increase in progress. At that rate, the 'T' in DOT means 'trouble,' not 'transportation.' The Federal Aviation Administration's antiquated air traffic control system is a significant part of the problem. Its progress rate makes the horse and buggy look like rapid transit."
FAA spokesperson Paul Takamoto said his agency has "no quibble" with the numbers in Horn's report "because they are based on the numbers we gave to the Office of Management and Budget." Takamoto said the reason for the bad grade is that DOT/FAA has a separate set of deadlines for making Y2K repairs than OMB has adopted.
"Our deadline is for all testing to be done by March 31 and implementation of repaired systems by June 30," he said. "We are making great progress. All of our systems have been renovated and are on track to be implemented by the June 30 date." OMB, on the other hand, has called for all system repairs to be in place by March 31.
FAA administrator Jane Garvey and Ray Long, her top staff aide on Y2K matters, met with reporters recently to offer assurances that the nation's air traffic control system will operate safely on Jan. 1, 2000. Long said that all 626 FAA computer systems, which control functions from air traffic control to employee payroll, will be certified as Y2K compliant by June 20. "Safety is not an issue," Garvey stressed.
Long said FAA will have backup systems, such as power generators, in place to ensure that its operations continue uninterrupted. He also said FAA is conducting end-to-end tests of its systems "above and beyond" those required, since its equipment interacts with multiple systems.
Garvey noted that airport operators themselves are responsible for the smooth functioning of other services, including checkin and baggage handling. If these are not properly tested and repaired, passengers will experience delays on the ground similar to those experienced during inclement weather, she said.
Meanwhile, U.S. airports surveyed by the General Accounting Office have completed less than half of the work needed to repair their Y2K computer problems. As a result, there is a risk of less efficient manual backup procedures being used, perhaps "seriously reducing" an airport's efficiency, GAO concluded in a report issued March 2 (<I>BTN,</I> March 8).
At the request of Congress, GAO studied 413 airports with annual enplanements of 10,000 or more, and found that only one-third will meet the June 30 deadline recommended by FAA. Another third of the airports said they have begun contingency planning to ensure continued operations if equipment malfunctions. The final third of the airports did not meet either of these criteria, GAO said. The agency noted that this final one-third consists of nine large airports, 19 medium-size airports and 79 small airports, but GAO auditors did not identify the airports by name.
FAA and airport officials agreed that even if Y2K problems do occur at airports, they are "unlikely" to affect safety and security, but will put these facilities at a higher risk of suffering equipment breakdowns.
"Given the short time remaining for airports to complete their Year 2000 preparations, it appears likely that some critical equipment will fail or malfunction, the efficiency of some airports will be degraded, and delays resulting from less efficient backup procedures or the closures of some airports for safety and security reasons could reduce the efficiency of the national airspace system," GAO said. If critical equipment at airports should malfunction, FAA and airport officials agree they will suspend or restrict operations rather than risk compromising an airport's safety or security.
In addition to meeting its own deadlines for correcting Y2K problems, FAA also is working with six countries that represent 60 percent of the flights to and from the United States--Bahamas, Canada, Dominican Republic, Japan, Mexico and the United Kingdom--to ensure that international aviation operations will continue uninterrupted after Jan. 1.
The International Civil Aviation Organization and the International Air Transport Association are surveying foreign governments and airlines with respect to their Y2K compliance. The two multinational associations also are developing contingency plans for cases where components of the aviation infrastructure are not ready.
IATA in late February reported that some parts of the system won't be ready by Dec. 31, despite more than $2.3 billion in investments by airlines. On the bright side, according to IATA director general Pierre Jeanniot, some major systems are completing their upgrades and testing as early as this month and most major city pairs should see no disruptions. Jeanniot said some areas will not be ready because they didn't begin their work early enough, and "there is the possibility of capacity restrictions in some areas."
IATA's Y2K team has visited more than 100 air traffic service organizations and more than 60 airports. But because of confidentiality agreements signed with nations and aviation companies, IATA will not reveal which segments or entities may not be finished in time.
Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department warned Americans to be careful when traveling abroad over the start of the new millennium because of possible Y2K problems. In a Jan. 29 notice, the State Department warned that transportation could be disrupted and credit card and ATM machines may malfunction. In addition, Americans with special medical requirements should not assume that medical facilities and services will be available overseas.
"Many businesses and governments are actively engaged in addressing potential Y2K travel problems and may experience little or no noticeable disruption in essential services," the Department said. "However, others with more limited resources or expertise, or who are not paying appropriate attention to the problem, may experience significant difficulties."
The State Department singled out financial services, utilities, telecommunications, transportation and other vital services as the most likely areas of concern. The warning said: "It is difficult to forecast where the Y2K problem will surface and some problems could even appear before Jan. 1, 2000."
Although most CRSs and airlines already have successfully booked their first tickets for travel after the year 2000, to date very few such bookings have been made. Said Terry Trippler, publisher of airfarereport.com, "Availability looks good. I'm seeing '9' (in the CRSs) for almost every class of service" across the board, which means chances are good that there are plenty of seats.
Since the airlines have made tickets for travel in and around the millennium nonrefundable, Trippler pointed out, it won't be until after Easter that the industry begins to get an idea of how much demand to expect for the first days of the New Year. Following that, any major changes in airline schedules would appear in the fall. It could be that warnings from the government are holding down demand for now, until more reassuring news surfaces, he noted.
Mike Boyd, president of The Boyd Group in Evergreen, Colo., believes the airlines will suffer financially because people will be afraid to travel. "I'm not concerned with the airlines on Y2K compliance--they'll be fine," he said. "But unless the FAA says in October that the system is fixed, the airlines will get hit to the tune of $300 million because of the drop in bookings for flights after the first of the year.