Travel Business Roundtable Index Rebounds
<B>Travel Business Roundtable Index Rebounds</B>
<I>Washington, D.C. - </I>The Travel Business Roundtable Index of Leading Economic Indicators has reported figures for May which show a healthy 1.9 percent growth, rebounding from the 0.6 percent decline for the month before and then some.
Unlike the previous month, which showed declines in three of the nine economic indicators the index uses to track the travel industry, the May performance showed advances in six areas.
In May, increases were particularly strong for total Airlines Reporting Corp. sales and for two of the three areas that declined last month, Smith Travel Research's hotel/motel revenue index and Smith Travel's hotel/motel occupancy rate. Also showing growth were revenue passenger miles according to the Air Transport Association, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index, and personal consumption expenditures for travel and other discretionary products and services from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.The other area of decline in April--retail sales at eating and drinking establishments taken from the Department of Commerce and Bureau of Census--virtually was unchanged in May. Daily rental price, according to an index provided by an industry source, and the level of travel industry employment, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, also showed flat growth.
Meanwhile, the Conference Board's U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators showed a second consecutive monthly decline of 0.1 percent.
Dr. James Howell, economist, president of the Boston-based Howell group and designer of the Travel Business Roundtable Index of Leading Economic Indicators, said the travel industry's "countervailing strength means that there is little likelihood that the U.S. economy will slide into a severe recession." Despite the impact of federal policies that have caused declines in "interest rate-sensitive sectors, such as housing and auto sales," the travel industry's performance was a mitigating factor.
"In response to the strong May performance that was spread across all classes of lodging facilities and across all regions, industry executives have indicated that it was one of the best months in years," Howell said. "But while the expectation is that the strong demand will continue through July, there is also some concern that by late fall or early winter, the realities of a slowing economy will increasingly dominate the travel industry's performance.