Those looking for evidence
of a wholesale slowdown in corporate travel won't find it in a Morgan Stanley
survey released Wednesday, which found the majority of 367 corporate travel buyers polled expect air travel budgets, bookings and fares to grow next year.
While Morgan Stanley found that "2012
corporate bookings and airfares are likely to grow mid-single-digits year over
year," corporations have become "slightly more stringent" on
premium travel policies, and buyers quickly could reverse course if compelled
by macroeconomic factors.
Sixty-three percent of
respondents expect travel
budgets to increase in 2012, "which supports commentary from airlines suggesting strength in forward bookings," according to the
research note issued by Morgan Stanley aviation analyst Bill Greene. However, one-fifth
of the respondents expect budget cuts next year, though mostly by no more than
10 percent.
Of all respondents, 64
percent expect air bookings next year to grow from 2011 levels. "However,
it is important to note that growth expectations have decelerated" from
this year, according to the research note.
Meanwhile, more than 80
percent of surveyed buyers expect negotiated airfares to increase or remain
flat in 2012, even though they anticipate greater discount levels. "Our survey suggests that airlines
are competing more aggressively using corporate discounts," according to
the research note.
Morgan
Stanley noted that a trend of reduced air discount levels for many corporate clients, which began in 2009, "is seeing a reversal," as the percentage
of buyer respondents this year with no more than 10 percent discounts declined,
and the percentage with greater discounts increased.
Even as corporations gain
distance from the financial collapse of 2008 and subsequent recession, the
impact remains. Only 40 percent of respondents indicated their travel budgets
"are
currently back at the peak, pre-financial crisis levels." While an
additional 15 percent of respondents expect to reach those peaks next year, 18
percent expect their organizations never will.
Although 70 percent of respondents expect to maintain
current premium air travel policies in 2012, a quarter expect "more
stringent policies" for next year. "Additionally,
fewer travel managers see policies becoming more liberal,"
Morgan Stanley noted.
The survey also gauged buyer
perceptions of major U.S. carriers, based on five criteria: quality of network,
frequency of flights, quality of product, reliability and price. Delta Air
Lines ranked most favorably in the latter three categories, while United gained
the highest marks in the first two. The findings are consistent with Business Travel News' 2011 Annual
Airline Survey, in which Delta and United placed first and second, respectively.
Morgan Stanley fielded the
survey between Oct. 20 and Oct. 28, with the largest
respondent bases in technology/telecom, industrial and financial services
sectors.