BCD Travel's Advito consultancy has revised upward projected 2012
airfares for Latin America and the Middle East. For hotels, Advito left
unchanged regional average daily rate forecasts, but adjusted up rate forecasts
specifically for Argentina and Switzerland, and down for the Czech Republic,
India and Russia.
When examining BCD Travel client transactional data through February
2012, Advito determined that business travel demand "especially in the
United States is coming back stronger than expected, resulting in growth of the
domestic market and acting as a business driver for South America as
well."
In Latin America, Advito now expects a 10 percent year-over-year
increase in regional airfares and a 9 percent increase in intercontinental
economy airfares, both 2 percentage points above the previous forecast. The
company cited "stronger than expected domestic demand supplemented by U.S.
economic recovery."
In the Middle East, "strong demand" prompted a doubling of
projected airfare increases "across all categories and classes" to 8
percent to 9 percent.
For hotels, Advito doubled its earlier increased forecast for
average daily rate in Argentina to a range of 16 percent to 20 percent. It
noted "high inflation."
In Europe, the revised hotel forecast for Russia considered
"softened demand" and cut growth by 2 percentage points to a growth
range of 1 percent to 3 percent. The Czech Republic forecast also was cut by 2
percentage points to a range of no growth to 2 percent growth, as the market
there has "been hit harder by the economic crisis than previously
envisioned." Advito revised in the opposite direction its projected hotel
rate increase in Switzerland, up 2 percentage points to a growth range of 2
percent to 4 percent. The consultancy assumed that the "country's growth
as a non-eurozone and non-European Union member will be less affected by the
ongoing European crisis."
Advito's 2 percentage point downward revision for hotel ADR in India
follows "a surge in new capacity becoming available." The 2012
forecast now calls for flat to 2 percent growth.