Editorial: Not Yet Ready For The Y2K

<B> Editorial: Not Yet Ready For The Y2K</B>

At the very moment when electronic commerce seems ready to lift off from the runway, the millennium bug threatens to bring it crashing down.

Whether the Year 2000 computer problem turns out to be a catastrophe or a non-event depends on whether or not every element of the travel industry upholds its responsibility to upgrade all computer systems to distinguish the Year 2000 from the Year 1000.

There couldn't be a better time for this expensive proposition in the economic cycle of the travel industry. The continuing seller's market should provide the rate increases to fund the costly process of upgrading the software that runs everything from air traffic control centers and flight instrument panels to telephones and reservation systems.

The half a billion dollars that the largest airlines and the largest hotel companies will spend in the next year to address this problem (see stories, page 1) is only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to assessing the total cost of the conversion throughout the industry and the economy. Estimates of the total cost of fixing the problem vary widely, with some pegging the tab as high as $4 trillion.

Certainly a lot of money and time is being applied to resolving this computer error, but that does not ensure that all travel suppliers and buyers, and the other companies they do business with, will be ready in less than 600 days. A recent Cap Gemini survey found that 32 percent of 128 large companies still didn't have plans in place to address the Year 2000 computer problem as of March.

Those who got an early start in rewriting every line of software code to include four digits--not just two--are urging others to begin the process now and not underestimate the daunting task of this endeavor. They advise those in the planning process to see the task as more than just rewriting the code, but also as testing the new software and making sure it integrates with other systems.

Some travel vendors plan to stop doing business with organizations with which they need to communicate electronically if they don't become Year 2000-ready in time. Certainly this is the last budgeting cycle in which companies can throw money at the problem in sufficient amounts to change the code the right way in time.

As 1999 budgets are drawn up, the focus that many companies will put on upgrading their computer systems will result in a cost-of-doing-business line item that will displace other budgetary priorities, and it will continue to drive travel costs up. But consider the consequences to travelers, corporate buyers and the travel industry should updating just one line of code be overlooked.