Reductions in airline delays in 2008 and 2009 are more attributable to slashed capacity, airline scheduling practices, new airline fees and declining passenger traffic than to government actions implemented to battle congestion, according to U.S. Department of Transportation Inspector General testimony prepared for a congressional hearing today.
There is no evidence that DOT initiatives launched in 2007 to curb delays caused by capacity-constrained airports have contributed to delay reductions, DOT inspector general Calvin Scovel III today said, according to written testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee's Subcommittee on Aviation.
"The air traveler experience in 2008, as measured by DOT, improved over 2007," Scovel said in a prepared statement today, noting that for the last six months of 2008, only 22 percent of flights experienced delays—an improvement from the 27 percent rate for the same period in 2007. Carriers by and large continue to post year-over-year on-time performance improvements this year. DOT last week released data for March, showing more than 78 percent of flights were on time, up from 71.6 percent in March 2008.
Scovel said the trends were "primarily driven by flight cutbacks that airlines implemented in the face of last year's unprecedented fuel prices and onset of the global economic downturn." For the last three months in 2008, traffic declined by about 10 percent over the same period in 2007, DOT figures show.
Scovel also said airline scheduling practices are enabling better on-time performance. Examining 2,500 domestic markets, DOT found airlines increased flight times on two-thirds of their schedules. "Although this practice led to a perceived decline in flight delays, it resulted in an increase in average flight time," Scovel noted.
Air Transport Association chief economist John Heimlich during February's Masters Program in Washington, D.C., called the trend "schedule creep" and described it as a catch-22 for carriers. "If we're scheduling to reflect reality, we're padding the schedule, but if we're scheduling more aggressively then it's false advertising," Heimlich said. "It's classic damned if you do, damned if you don't."
Though the practice can create perceptions of better performance, it also can be more costly to carriers. Since labor contracts typically "dictate that we pay the crews the maximum of the scheduled time or the actual time," Heimlich said, increasing the scheduled flight time also increases crew costs.
In addition to capacity cuts, scheduling practices and reduced passenger volumes, Scovel said new runways at Washington-Dulles, Chicago O'Hare and Seattle-Tacoma airports have fostered fewer delays. He also said, "Airlines also claim that new fees for checked bags have reduced the number of bags handled by the airlines and aided in the more timely operation of flights."
DOT's Scovel said, "Enhancing capacity and reducing delays systemwide ultimately depends on the development and implementation of the Next Generation Air Traffic Management System. However, this is a long-term, complex effort that will require billion-dollar investments from both FAA and airspace users."
In the meantime, the government has implemented some short-term fixes to the transportation system. At the behest of President George W. Bush, DOT in 2007 embarked on a crusade against congestion, following a summer season marred by high passenger volumes and rampant delays
(BTNonline, Oct. 8, 2007). By the end of that year, DOT's Aviation Rulemaking Committee recommended 77 initiatives to help curb delays—many of them centered on highly congested New York City-area airports. "While FAA reports that more than one-third of the initiatives are complete, most of these are not used or are used infrequently," Scovel said today. "Moreover, it is not clear that the completed initiatives have actually reduced delays since FAA lacks a means to measure their impact."
For the short term, Scovel expects on-time performance to "hold steady or improve further," but once passenger volumes begin to return, so too will delays.
"Although the current delay statistics and customer service trends look favorable, history shows that traffic will rebound given the intrinsic value of air transport to the nation's livelihood. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the current positive trend can be sustained," Scovel noted. He said the waning of congestion offers an opportunity for the FAA to "strategically position itself for a rebound in air travel, particularly at already congested airports."