The U.S. Travel Association projects "muted" domestic business travel growth this year will turn into stronger volume in the coming years, though it said "significant" uncertainty remains in travel predictions, according to a fall forecast update issued on Thursday.
The forecast, based on Tourism Economics' travel forecasting model, projects U.S. domestic business travel spending for full-year 2025 will land at 1.4 percent above 2024 levels, with group travel growing at a slightly faster pace. That is below its forecast of 1.9 percent year-over-year growth in domestic leisure travel spending this year.
U.S. Travel predicts 2025 spending on inbound international travel to the U.S., meanwhile, will be down 3.2 percent year over year, and international visits will be down 6.3 percent, largely due to a downturn in inbound travel from Canada. The association noted that the volume of visits from most countries to the U.S. is flat this year, but travel from Canada is down significantly.
Overall, U.S. Travel projects a 1.1 percent growth in total U.S. travel spending to $1.35 trillion this year.
The forecast looks rosier in subsequent years, according to U.S. Travel. The association projects domestic business travel growth will accelerate and surpass domestic leisure growth rates sometime from 2027 through 2029 "as business investment solidifies and overall economic conditions improve." Inbound international visits are projected to be up 3.7 percent year over year in 2026 and potentially reach record levels later this decade following major global events, such as the FIFA 2026 World Cup and the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles.
U.S. Travel cautioned that potential increases in visa fees or long waits for visa applications and renewals could stymie that inbound international travel growth. It also said consumer uncertainty "remains significant, and if broader economic conditions deteriorate, travel is likely to decrease as well."